[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds will persist off
Veracruz Mexico and the far southwest Gulf of Mexico through the
morning. 1040 mb high pressure over northern Mexico is supporting
the gales, along with strong winds across the southern Gulf. Seas
over the far southwest Gulf may be reaching as high as 19 ft.
Winds are expected to diminish below gale force through this
morning. Winds and seas will continue to subside through tonight
as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward across the
northern Gulf. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over West Africa. An ITCZ
stretches westward from 03N15W to 00N35W to 02N45W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N between
12W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection also noted from 01N to
04n between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from Sarasota, Florida to
22N88W in the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. in addition
to the gale force winds and attendant seas over the southwest
Gulf, buoy observations and satellite derived data indicate fresh
to strong northerly winds and seas in excess of 8 ft west of the
front and south of 26N. However, winds and seas are starting to
diminish across the northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh offshore
flow. A few showers and thunderstorms are active east of the front
over the far southeast Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall across the Straits of
Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate through late
Sun. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf off Veracruz will
persist through the morning. Winds and seas will diminish across
the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will develop over the northern
Gulf late Mon and move across the basin through mid week, possibly
bringing another round of winds to gale force to the west-central
and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will
diminish across the basin by Wed night as high pressure builds
over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small upper level low is centered just south of Puerto Rico.
Divergent flow aloft on the southeast of the upper low is support
a few showers along and mainly north of the Virgin Islands. This
pattern is also supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms farther south near 15N65W along a shear line
reaching from east of the Leeward Islands to the east central
Caribbean. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh
to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, as well as fresh
to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
winds are likely off the southern coast of the Dominican Republic
as well. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are near 9
ft off Colombia, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean,
and 3 to 5 ft over the remaining areas of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia,
south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through Sun night.
Moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Large NE swell will dominate
the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands Sun night. Looking ahead,
a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid week
then stall over the far northwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from off the Carolina coast to just north of
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to occasionally strong NW winds
follow the front, with seas building to 8 ft. Ahead of the front,
a wedge of high pressure reaches from northeast of Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas. Farther to the east, 1015 mb low pressure is
centered near 23.5N47W, along a frontal boundary reaching from
31N38W to 18N55W, then continuing on as a shear line to the
Leeward Islands. A large area of fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 12
ft seas is evident in various buoy observations and earlier
satellite derived data between the low pressure and the wedge of
high pressure to the west. South of 15N in the deep tropics, fresh
trade winds and seas to 8 to 9 ft in NE swell are noted. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front off Florida will
reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight. Weak low
pressure will form along the front off east central Florida Sun
night, then drag the western portion of the front north of the
area Mon as the low moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold
front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then
stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through
mid week.

$$
Christensen
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