[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds will persist off
Veracruz Mexico and the far southwest Gulf of Mexico through
this morning and early afternoon. A 1038 mb high pressure over
northern Mexico is supporting the gales, along with strong winds
across the southern Gulf. Seas over the far southwest Gulf may
be reaching as high as 19 ft. Winds are expected to diminish
below gale force this afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to
subside through tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward across the northern Gulf. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mainly inland over West Africa. The
ITCZ stretches westward from 08N13W to 03N20W to 01N40W to
01N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
convection is evident south of the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between
11W and 21W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ between 17W and 25W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over the coastal waters offshore
Brazil between 42W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from Fort Myers Beach,
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near
21N88W. In addition to the gale force winds and very rough seas
over the southwest Gulf, buoy observations and satellite derived
data reveal fresh to strong northerly winds and seas in excess
of 8 ft behind of the front, covering most of the basin.
However, winds and seas are starting to diminish across the
northwestern Gulf, with moderate to fresh offshore flow.

For the forecast, the front will stall across the Straits of
Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate through late
Sun. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf off Veracruz will
persist through the morning. Winds and seas will diminish across
the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will develop over the northern
Gulf late Mon and move across the basin through mid week,
possibly bringing another round of winds to gale force to the
west-central and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and
seas will diminish across the basin by Wed night as high
pressure builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small upper level low is centered just south of Puerto Rico.
At the surface, a stationary front extends SW from the Atlantic,
reaching the Leeward Islands to near 15N64W. The mid-upper level
low is supporting a few showers in the NE Caribbean, north of
the stationary front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
confirmed fresh to strong NE winds across the central Caribbean
between 70W and 80W, as well as within the Windward Passage. The
pass also revealed mainly strong winds within 90 nm off the
coast of Colombia. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft, reaching 9 ft
within the area of strong winds off Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate trades continue over the eastern Caribbean with 4 to
6 ft seas and mainly moderate NE winds are over the northwest
Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia,
south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through Sun
night. Large NE swell dominating the Atlantic waters east of the
Leeward Islands will gradually diminish tonight through Sun
night. A cold front moving SE across the Gulf of Mexico today
will stall across the Yucatan Channel tonight and weaken through
Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel by mid week, then stall over the far northwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W to Fort Pierce, FL bringing
fresh to strong NE winds behind the boundary. Ahead of the
boundary, high pressure SE of Bermuda is allowing for gentle to
moderate return flow south of 29N and moderate to fresh SW winds
north of 29N. Seas north of 27N and west of 65W are in the 6 to
8 ft range.

Farther to the east, 1015 mb low pressure is centered near
27N45W. An occluded front with a trailing cold front is ahead of
the parent low, extending from 31N43W to 29N42W to 20N51W where
the front stalls and extends SW to the Lesser Antilles. A
secondary cold front now extends SW from the parent low to
20N53W to 19N60W, then a shearline continues along 18/19N to
67W.  Fresh to strong winds continue north of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico due to the shearline, with mainly moderate flow
elsewhere behind the boundaries. A large area of 8 to 12 ft seas
in NW swell continues between the low pressure and the wedge of
high pressure to the west, including over the waters south of
27N and east of 75W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight. Weak low pressure will
form along the front off east-central Florida Sun night, then
drag the western portion of the front north of the area Mon as
the low moves toward the Carolina coast.
Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast
late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas through mid week.

$$
Mora
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