[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong 1041 mb high pressure over N Mexico is channeling
northerly winds across the N and SW Gulf behind a cold front over
the Yucatan Peninsula, E central Gulf and N Florida. Near-gale to
gale winds will continue for the W central Gulf and Bay of
Campeche through Sat morning, then gradually subside staring late
Sat afternoon. Seas are peaking at 15 to 18 ft in these areas and
should slowly decrease starting late Sat evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the central African
continent. An ITCZ stretches westward from SW of Liberia at 03N14W
through 02N30W to N of Belem, Brazil at 01N47W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen up to 100 nm from either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on an ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from near Homosassa Bay,
Florida through Merida at the NW Yucatan Peninsula to near the
Mexico-Guatemala border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm SE of the front,
and also behind the front over the NE Gulf. Cloudiness and patchy
rain are noted over the W Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale N winds with
seas at 8 to 11 ft persist for the NW and N central Gulf. Fresh to
strong N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present for the NE Gulf.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft are
found over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.

As for the forecast, the cold front will stall across the Straits
of Florida and Yucatan Channel by Sat night. Gale force winds
over the SW Gulf off Veracruz will persist through Sat morning.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun as high pressure
builds over the N Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the
far SW Gulf Mon and Tue, possibly supporting winds to gale force
by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southwestern end of a weakening stationary front is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE basin,
including Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Otherwise,
a strong ridge of high pressure over the W Atlantic continues to
support a NE to ENE trade-wind regime across the entire Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft are found for
the S central basin just N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist over the N central basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Basin.

As for the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, S of Hispaniola,
and in the Windward passage through tonight. Moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over
the Windward Passage before diminishing early next week. Large NE
swell will dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands
through late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the N central Atlantic
across 31N40W to 24N46W, which continues as a warm front to a
1017 mb low pressure at 23N47W. It then transforms back to a cold
and continues southwestward to 20N51W, where it becomes a
stationary front to near the Leeward Islands. Aided by divergent
flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is present up to 100 nm
from either side of these features. A surface trough near 28N23W
is producing scattered showers W of the Canary Islands, N of 26N
between 19W and 30W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Latest Satellite scatterometer and altimetery data reveal
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft to the N and W
of the cold/stationary front, N of 18N between 48W and 72W.
Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted
farther W, N of 23N between 72W and the Florida-Georgia coast.
Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are noted for
the SE Bahamas and Strait of Florida. Light to gentle winds with
seas at 4 to 5 ft are present S of the Cabo Verde Islands from the
Equator to 12N between the central African coast and 30W. Mainly
gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
for the remainder of the basin.

As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
continue from N of the Mona Passage through the SE Bahamas to the
Florida Straits. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
overnight, and reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Sat night.
Weak low pressure will form along the front off E central Florida
Sun night, then drag the western portion of the front N of the
area Mon as the low moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold
front will follow off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then stall
and dissipate from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas through Tue night.

$$

Chan
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