[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 05 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure is
building surging southward over the western Gulf and over Mexico
in the wake of a cold front and the associated northerly flow
is advecting a cold air mass across these waters. The resultant
tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively
lower pressure to the SE near a cold front is inducing gale-
force NW to N winds over the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico and
strong to near gale-force over the rest of the western Gulf
waters. Latest altimeter data passes shows seas of 10-15 ft in
the western part of the Gulf S of 26N W of 94W, and 8-12 ft seas
elsewhere W of the front N of 26N W of 87W. The gale-force winds
off Veracruz are forecast to continue through Sat morning, then
diminish to strong speeds Sat afternoon. The cold front will
become stationary over the far SE Gulf by late Sat allowing for
conditions in the NW Gulf to diminish.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 05N16W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 04N24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm S of the trough between 10W-16W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ
between 16W-24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
on an ongoing Gale Warning.

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from Apalachee Bay southwestward
to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and extreme southeastern Mexico.
Atlantic high pressure extends WSW to the far eastern Gulf.
Satellite imagery shows a blanket of low-level clouds covering
the Gulf to the W of the cold front. The cold front clearly
delineates the leading edge of this cloud cover. Areas of
drizzle/rain are underneath these clouds. Scattered showers are
mainly N of 27N between the front and 93W. Reduced visibilities
are possible with the precipitation activity. Seas W of the front
are in the 8-12 ft range, except for higher seas of 10-15 ft S
of 26N and W of 94W. Gentle to moderate southerly flow around the
western periphery of Atlantic high pressure ridging that extends
to the eastern Gulf is present to the E of the front. Seas over
this part of the Gulf are in the 3-6 ft range.

As for the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa,
Florida to Merida, Mexico tonight, then become stationary
from the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico by Sat night.
Gale-force and strong winds over western Gulf in the wake of
the front will diminish during the weekend as high pressure
builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form
over the far SW Gulf Mon through Tue, possibly supporting winds
to gale-force by late on Mon or on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 18N60W westward to
across Leeward Islands and southwestward to central Caribbean
to near 16N72W. An upper-level trough extends from the central
Atlantic southwestward to an elongated upper-level low noted on
water vapor imagery to be just N of Puerto Rico near 19N67W.
The trough extends from the upper-level low southwestward to
near 15N71W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
seen from 17N to 20N between 62W-67w, including the Leeward
Islands and portions of Puerto Rico and surrounding waters.
This activity is presently increasing as it is under favorable
upper-level conditions provided by the aforementioned upper-
level low and trough. Otherwise, patches of low-level moisture
along with isolated showers are moving westward across sections
of the basin E of 83W and from 14N to 16N. Fair weather
conditions are present elsewhere under subsidence and dry
sinking air aloft.

The gradient associated to Atlantic high pressure is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia, where
seas are peaking to 8 ft. Similar winds are near southern
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trade
wind are elsewhere, except for generally light to gentle NE to
E trade winds to the W of 81W. Seas elsewhere are in the 3-6 ft
range, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft S of 11N between Colombia
and Panama, 5-7 ft N of 15N and between 64W-80W and lower seas
of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and also N of 18N W of 85W.

As for the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
maintain little change to the fresh to strong trade winds near
the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward
passage through tonight. The trade winds in the Windward Passage
will diminish thereafter into early next week. The moderate to
fresh trade winds over the remainder of the basin will remain
through the weekend, and the trade winds W of 81W will also
remain about the same through the weekend. Large NE swell will
dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands through
Sun, then slowly subside.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N41W to low pressure near 23N49W
1014 mb, and continues southwestward to 18N60W, where it
transitions to a dissipating front well into the central
Caribbean. A well pronounced upper-level trough extends from
near 31N48W southwestward to 25N56W and to an upper-level
low near 19N67W. The trough continues from the low southwestward
to the central Caribbean Sea. Upper-level divergence E of this
trough is supporting a large area of moderate rain with embedded
scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
N of 26N and E of the cold front to near 35W. A second cold
front extends from a 1016 mb near 29N49W to 26N48W and to 22N54W
to 22N60W and to 22N65W. Isolated showers are possible along and
near the front, and also with the low. Latest scatterometer data
depicts strong N to NE winds to the N of this front. Seas are in
the range of 12-14 ft N of the front and W to 53W due to a N to
NE swell. Per latest altimeter data passes, seas are in the range
of 8-12 ft N of the front between 53W-65W also due to a N to NE
swell.

In the far eastern Atlantic areas, a surface trough extends from
31N17W to 26N17W and to 19N20W. Isolated showers are near
the northern part of the trough. Another surface trough extends
from a 1015 mb low near 32N21W, SSW to 28.5N24W and NW to near
32N31W. Isolated showers are near the trough. Another surface
trough is over the coastal waters and the coastal plains of
Africa from Sierra Leone northward.

Latest scatterometer data passes depict generally moderate
to fresh N to NE winds outside the wind conditions associated to
the the aforementioned cold fronts, with the exception of fresh
S to SW winds N of 27N W of 77W. Seas elsewhere from those
described above with the fronts are in the 4-7 ft range.

As for the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas Sat night. Weak low pressure will form along the
front off east central Florida Sun night, then drag the western
portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low moves
toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow off the
northeast Florida coast late Mon, then become stationary and
dissipate from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through Tue
night.

$$
Aguirre
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