[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The marine forecast for the next 30 hours or so consists of: the
gale-force wind speeds from 18N to 20N between 86W and 96W. The
scatterometer data have been showing wind speeds that have been
ranging from near-gale to gale-force, to the west and northwest of
the cold front position. The sea heights will start to range from
10 feet to 15 feet. The sea heights will increase to the range
from 14 feet to 18 feet, in 24 hours. Expect these conditions for
the next 30 hours to 48 hours.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W, to 05N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 03N26W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 10W and 15W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 35W eastward. The GFS
model guidance for 500 mb suggests that a small part of a trough
is in the area that is from 10N southward between 40W and 50W. A
surface trough is to the south of the Equator, along 02S32W at the
Equator along 38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N southward between 34W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force wind conditions, and the sea heights, related to a
cold front, during the next 30 hours or so.

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central and east central Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated to widely scattered rainshowers, are to the W and NW
of the cold front. Light to gentle southerly breezes, and sea
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are to the east of the
cold front.

A cold front extending from western Florida Panhandle to central
Bay of Campeche this morning will reach from Tampa, Florida to
Merida, Mexico Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida
to Cancun Mexico by Sat night. Gale force winds over the southwest
Gulf off Veracruz will persist through Sat morning. Winds and
seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds
over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the
far southwest Gulf Mon and Tue, possibly supporting winds to gale
force by late Mon or Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active cold front passes through 20N52W to 18N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean. The cold front continues along 18N between 60W
and 63W, just to the east of the islands of the eastern Caribbean
Sea. A dissipating stationary front continues from 18N63W to
16N72W. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean
just to the north of Puerto Rico, into the south central Caribbean
Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
11N northward from Jamaica eastward. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in the water vapor imagery in the entire
Caribbean Sea, except for the areas that surround the dissipating
stationary front. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate, to locally strong, is within 210 nm to the north of the
frontal boundary, and within 135 nm to the south of the frontal
boundary, between 57W and 72W.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers,
in the remainder of the area.

North central Atlantic Ocean high pressure is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds off the coast of Colombia, where the sea heights
are building to 9 feet. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights
that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the remainder of the
area. Earlier observations were showing that the wind speeds off
the coast of central Honduras were pulsing to 25 knots.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the
Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Fri night. Moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over the Windward Passage
diminishing into early next week. Large NE swell will dominate
the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands through late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first cold front passes through 31N41W, to a 1018 mb low
pressure center that is near 23N48W. The cold front continues
from the 1018 mb low pressure center, to 20N52W, 18N60W, and
18N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the cold front.

A second cold front curves through 31N47W, to 25N50W, and 22N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of
the cold front. Mostly strong northerly winds are from the second
cold front northward. Mostly strong, to some near gale-force
winds, cover the Atlantic Ocean from Puerto Rico to 28N between
60W and 70W.

A surface ridge passes through 31N69W to 28N75W, through the
Straits of Florida, to the SE Gulf of Mexico. 1020 mb high
pressure center is near 27N39W.

A few surface troughs are in the coastal waters and the coastal
plains of Africa, from Sierra Leone northward.

One surface trough is associated with a 33N21W 1017 mb low
pressure center, along 29N between 20W and 28W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 28N northward between 20W
and 30W.

Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the front over open waters in NE
swell. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms are noted from 19N
to 21N between 60W and 65W. Farther south, fresh trade winds with
seas to 8 ft are evident south of 15N west of 35W. Elsewhere broad
ridging is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds continue from N of the Mona
Passage through the southern Bahamas to the Florida Straits,
occurring along and N of a stationary front. A cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Sat night. Weak low pressure will
form along the front off east central Florida Sun, then drag the
western portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low
moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow
off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through Tue night.

$$
mt/ss
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