[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front extends from Pensacola, Florida to near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
showed a large area of fresh to strong NW to N winds across the
western Gulf. Winds are likely reaching gale force off Veracruz.
The gales are expected to persist off Veracruz through early Sun
with seas building to 17 ft. Winds and seas will diminish
thereafter through the early part of the week the front stalls
over the Yucatan Channel and high pressure builds across the
northern Gulf. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough passes just S of the Sierra
Leone-Liberia border to 04N17W. Then the ITCZ continues from
04N17W through 00N37W to the mouth of the Amazon River near
00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 70 nm from
either side of these features. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

Light to gentle southerly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident east of the front extending from Pensacola, Florida to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are active
within 60 nm east of the front north of 26N.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from Pensacola, Florida
to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico will reach from Tampa, Florida to
Merida, Mexico Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida
to Cancun Mexico by Sat night. Gale force winds over the southwest
Gulf off Veracruz will persist through early Sat. Winds and seas
will diminish across the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the far
southwest Gulf Mon and Tue, possibly supporting winds to gale
force by late Mon or Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and then to the south of the Dominican Republic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are active north of 16N and
east of 70W. High pressure centered over the north-central
Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia
where seas are building to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to
7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, with pulses to 25 kt off the coast
of central Honduras.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the
Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri night. Moderate
trades will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds will
remain over the Windward Passage diminishing into early next week.
Large NE swell will dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward
Islands through late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the N central Atlantic across
31N40W to a 1015 mb low pressure center near 23N50W. It then turns
west- southwestward as a cold front to near the Virgin Islands.
Recent buoy observations along with various scatterometer and
altimeter satellite passes over the past several hours indicates a
large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds west of the front,
becoming SE to S off the northeast coast of Florida. Seas are 8 to
12 ft west of the front over open waters in NE swell. Scattered
showers and few thunderstorms are noted from 19N to 21N between
60W and 65W. Farther south, fresh trade winds with seas to 8 ft
are evident south of 15N west of 35W. Elsewhere broad ridging is
supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Sat night. Weak low pressure will
form along the front off east central Florida Sun, then pull the
western portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low
moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow
off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through Tue night.

$$

Christensen
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