[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extends southwestward from the Mississippi
coast across the N central Gulf to just S of Vera Cruz, Mexico.
Near-gale to gale force winds continue to impact the W central
and SW Gulf, including the W Bay of Campeche. As this front
steadily pushes eastward through Fri night, these winds will
spread into the central Gulf and across the entire Bay of
Campeche. Seas of 10 to 13 ft will build higher, reaching 13 to 15
ft Fri morning and then 15 to 18 ft Fri night. Conditions are
expected to gradually improve Sat afternoon and night. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough passes just S of the Sierra
Leone-Liberia border to 04N17W. Then the ITCZ continues from
04N17W through 02N30W to NE of Belem, Brazil at EQ46W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen up to 70 nm from either side of these
features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends southwestward from the Mississippi
coast across the N central Gulf to just S of Vera Cruz, Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
and up to 80 nm behind the front. Cloudiness and patchy rain are
seen along and near the Texas/Mexico coastline. Outside the near-
gale to gale winds, strong northerly winds with seas of 7 to 10 ft
exist across the NW Gulf. Fresh with locally strong southerly
winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft present over the central and NE Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach
from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Fri
morning, then begin to stall from SW Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula Sat morning. Gale force winds over the W central Gulf
will spread into the SW Gulf off Veracruz late tonight and
persist through early Sat. Conditions will gradually improve by
late in the weekend. Next front expected to move across the
W Gulf Tue with the potential for more gale-force winds over the
W Gulf through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends west-southwestward from the central Atlantic
to just N of Puerto Rico, then continues west-northwestward as a
stationary front across Hispaniola, E and central Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident over the above
locations, as well as the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Otherwise, an
ENE to ESE trade wind pattern continues in the entire basin.
Fresh with locally strong trade winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
noted for the S central basin, just N of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades with seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen over the N central
basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

As for the forecast, high pressure extending from the NW Atlc to
coastal Georgia and South Carolina will maintain a tight pressure
gradient across the Caribbean basin. This will support fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia, S of Hispaniola, in the
Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Fri night. Moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over the Windward Passage
before diminishing early next week. Large NE swell will dominate
the Atlc waters of the Leeward Islands Fri through late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the N central Atlantic
across 31N40W to 23N49W, then continues as a warm front to a 1018
mb low pressure center near 23N51W. It then turns west-
southwestward as a cold front to just N of Puerto Rico. Scattered
moderate convection is found up to 200 nm NW, and up to 80 nm SE
of these features. Further E, a mid to upper-level trough near
31N14W continues to trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the Canary Islands.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE winds and seas at 10 to
14 ft are evident N and W of the cold front, N of 24N between 50W
and 66W. Moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with seas at 7 to 10
ft are seen farther S from the Greater Antilles to 24N between 54W
and 66W, and also to the W from the Great Bahama Bank to 28N
between 66W and the Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE trades and
seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from the Equator to 15N between 30W
and the Lesser Antilles. Light and gentle winds with seas at 4 to
6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

As for the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds continue
from N of the Windward Passage through the southern Bahamas to
the Florida Straits, occurring along and N of a stalled cold
front. Low pressure with a frontal trough over the central
Atlantic will move south of 31N tonight through Fri, and will
bring an increase in winds and seas mainly E of 75W tonight
through early Sat. N to NE swell behind the trough will propagate
across the waters E of the Bahamas late Fri into the upcoming
weekend.

$$

Chan
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