[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The short-term forecast consists of: N to NE gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 17 feet in N to NE swell,
from 29N to 31N between 52W and 54W. The wind speed conditions
will improve in about six hours or so, during the afternoon and
evening hours. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-
force speeds. Express strong to near gale- force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 11 feet to 16 feet in NE swell, from 27N to
31N between 52W and 67W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The short-term forecast consists of: the wind speeds will increase
to gale-force speeds, during the next six hours, from 22N to 24N
between 97W and 98W. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10
feet. Strong to near gale-force wind speeds, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, will cover the rest of the areas
that are from 21N to 29N between 94W and 98W. Expect more or less
the same gale-force wind conditions 24 hours from now. The sea
heights will be ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet in NW to N swell.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern sections of
Liberian near 05N08W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W,
to 04N25W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 06N southward from 40W
eastward. The GFS model guidance for 500 mb suggests that broad
cyclonic wind flow is covering the areas that are from 09N
southward between 44W and 53W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is from 06N southward between 50W and
53W, in the easternmost sections of French Guiana and in the
coastal plains of neighboring Brazil. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 07N southward between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force wind conditions, and the sea heights, during the next
48 hours or so.

A cold front has reached the NW part of the Gulf of Mexico, from
the SW corner of Louisiana to extreme NE Mexico, just to the south
of the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated rainshowers, are to the NW of
the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W. Strong SE winds are from 90W eastward. A surface trough
extends from an inland Mexico 1004 mb low pressure center that is
near 25N101W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet throughout the area.

A ridge dominates the eastern Gulf waters producing fresh to
strong S to SE winds over the Gulf E of 93W. A cold front has
entered the NW Gulf this morning, and will reach from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico by this evening,
then from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche
early Fri morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front across the
western Gulf today through Fri night. Conditions will gradually
improve by late in the weekend. Next front expected to move across
the western Gulf Tue with the potential for gale force winds
through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active cold front passes through 20N64W to 20N70W in the
Atlantic Ocean. A dissipating cold front is along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic from 70W westward, until NW Cuba
and the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
moderate is coastal waters of the eastern part of the Dominican
Republic. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either
side of the rest of the active cold front, and the dissipating
cold front, from 64W westward.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers,
in the remainder of the area.

An ENE to ESE trade wind pattern continues in the entire basin.
Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 8 feet, are in the south central part of the basin, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Some sea heights have been reaching as
high as 10 feet in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet,
cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure, extending from the NW Atlantic Ocean to coastal
Georgia, will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the
Caribbean basin. This will support fresh to strong winds near the
coast of Colombia, to the south of Hispaniola, in the Windward
Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through
Friday night. Moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the Windward Passage,
diminishing into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force wind conditions for the next 6 hours or so, and the
sea heights that are expected to range from 11 feet to 16 feet,
for at least the next 24 hours or so.

A cold front passes through 31N42W to 25N46W, to a 1018 mb low
pressure center that is near 24N52W. The cold front continues from
the 1018 mb low pressure center, to 20N64W and 20N70W. The front
becomes dissipating cold, from 20N70W, northwestward, along the
northern coasts of the Dominican Republic from 70W westward, until
NW Cuba and the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is along
30N51W to 25N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 370 nm to the north of the frontal boundary.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N39W.

One surface trough is along 30N34W 20N32W. Precipitation: isolated
rainshowers are within 210 nm on either side of the trough.

A second surface trough is along 20W/22W from 11N to 22N. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

A third surface trough is in the coastal waters of the Western
Sahara, from 23N17W northeastward, into the southern sections of
Morocco. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N to 26N from
20W eastward, into Africa.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are from the Greater
Antilles northward beyond 31N, between 59W and the Florida-
Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate winds, with locally fresh NE to
ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet,
are near the Cabo Verde Islands, from 12N to 25N between the
Mauritania/Western Sahara coast and 28W, and from the Equator to
15N between 28W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, cover the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds continue to extend from N of
the Mona Passage through the southern Bahamas to the Florida
Straits, occurring along and N of a stalled cold front. Winds will
increase to strong N of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba tonight as
the pressure gradient tightens in the area. A low pressure center,
with a central Atlantic Ocean frontal trough, will move south of
30N, and will bring an increase in winds to gale force winds for
a brief period this morning, with building seas mainly across the
eastern forecast waters today into Friday. N to NE swell behind
the trough will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late
this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
MT
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