[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central
Louisiana southwestward to 25N95W and continues to inland Mexico
just south of Tampico. Gale-force N winds are behind the front
in the SW Gulf and W-central Gulf waters. The front will reach
from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Fri
morning, then begin to stall from SW Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula Sat morning. Seas will build to 12-18 ft Fri night in
the SW Gulf and to 10-15 ft in the west-central Gulf. The gale-
force winds in the SW Gulf will continue into Fri night, while
the ones in the W-central Gulf will diminish to just below gale-
force on Fri. Conditions will then gradually improve through the
weekend. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern sections of
Liberian near 05N09W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W,
to the Equator along 40W. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm either side of the trough between 10W-24W and between 35W-
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
gale-force winds in the SW and west-central Gulf areas.

A cold front extends from central Louisiana southwestward to
25N95W and continues to inland Mexico just south of Tampico.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm either side of
the front N of 28N. Broken to multilayer clouds with embedded
small patches of rain and isolated showers are seen along and
just offshore the Texas coast. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
mainly E of the front, while strong to near gale-force N winds
are over the NW Gulf. A surface trough extends from 20N96W
southeastward to inland Mexico at 18N94W. Seas range from
5-8 ft E of the front to 9-13 ft behind the front.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche Fri morning, then begin to stall from SW Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. Gale-force conditions behind the
front will improve by Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 20N64W to along the N coast of
Hispaniola, then weakens to inland NE Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is some interior areas of Hispaniola. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are along the front. Patches of shallow
moisture are supporting passing isolated showers are across the
rest of the basin.

An ENE to ESE trade wind pattern continues in the entire basin.
Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 8 feet, are in the south central part of the basin, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Seas are in the range of 4-7 ft,
except for higher seas of 6-9 ft within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia, where NE to E strong to near gale-force winds are
present. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere across
the basin.

As for the forecast, high pressure extending from the NW Atlc to
coastal Georgia and South Carolina will maintain a tight
pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin. This will support
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of
Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras
mainly at night through Fri night. Moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over the
Windward Passage diminishing into early next week. Large NE swell
will dominate the Atlc waters of the Leeward Islands Fri through
late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N41W to a 1018 mb low pressure
center near 23N52W, and continues from the low to 20N64W, to
along the coast of Hispaniola, then weakens to inland NE Cuba. A
surface trough extends from near 30N34W to 20N32W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 300 nm east of the front N of 29N.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N39W.

A far eastern Atlantic trough extends from 23N20W to 12N22W,
while another one extends from 31N11W to 20N18W. No significant
convection is observed with these troughs,

Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE trade winds,
and seas that range from 6-9 ft are from the Greater Antilles
northward beyond 31N, between 59W and the Florida- Georgia coast.
Gentle to moderate winds, with locally fresh NE to ENE trade
winds, and seas that range from 4-7 feet  are near the Cabo
Verde Islands, from 12N to 25N between the Mauritania/Western
Sahara coast and 28W, and from the Equator to 15N between 28W and
the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas that range
from 4-6 ft cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

As for the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds
continue from N of the Mona Passage through the southern Bahamas
to the Florida Straits, occurring along and N of a stalled cold
front. Winds will increase to strong N of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba tonight as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. Low
pressure with a frontal trough over the central Atlantic will
move south of 29N tonight through Fri, and will bring an increase
in winds and seas mainly across the eastern forecast waters
tonight through early Sat. N to NE swell behind the trough will
propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late Fri into the
upcoming weekend.


$$
Aguirre
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