[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a 1016 mb low near 30N54W and a
1039 mb N Atlantic high E of Nova Scotia is generating near-gale
to gale winds east-southeast of Bermuda. Seas of 12 to 15 ft will
persist near the strongest winds. Gradual improvement is expected
starting late tonight or early Fri morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf off the
Texas/Louisiana coast today, then move southeastward through Fri
night. Near-gale to gale winds will develop behind the front
across W central and NW Gulf by early Thu afternoon, before
spreading to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Seas in these areas
will build and reach 8 to 11 ft by Thu evening, then quickly rise
further to between 16 and 20 ft late Thu night. Marine conditions
should begin to subside from N to S starting late Fri evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough lies mostly across the central African continent
with a short portion extending from Guinea near 13N16W to 12N18W.
An ITCZ extends from 02S28W to N of Sao Luis, Brazil at 00N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Gulf of Guinea W
to the coast of Liberia and along the ITCZ between 28W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning.

A surface trough extends from 26N90W to 30N87W. S to SE moderate
to fresh return flow is observed south of the trough. This is
maintaining wave heights between 8 to 14 ft E of 90W. In the NW
Gulf, stationary front enters the area with a 1007 mb low centered
over the Lower Rio Grande Valley in South Texas. Scattered
showers are present along and just S of the Texas- Louisiana-
Mississippi coastline. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends
southwestward from N Florida across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SE to S winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted for the central
and SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate SE to S
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

As for the forecast, a ridge dominates the eastern Gulf waters
producing fresh to strong SE winds over the eastern Gulf with
building seas, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over
the western Gulf. The next cold front will push off the coast of
Texas today. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, from near Panama City, Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche early Fri morning. Strong to gale
force northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake
of the front across the western Gulf today and continue through
Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the
weekend. Next front expected to move across the western Gulf Tue
returning the potential for gale force winds through Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
Hispaniola and E Cuba. Otherwise, a ENE to ESE trade-wind pattern
continues to dominate the entire basin. Fresh to strong trades
with seas at 6 to 8 ft are present over the S central basin, N of
the Colombian coast; and up to 10 ft across the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

As for the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will keep a tight pressure gradient across the basin. This will
support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of
Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras
mainly at night through Fri night. Moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over the
Windward Passage diminishing into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning.

A robust upper-level trough stretches from the N central Atlantic
across 31N63W to the N coast of Hispaniola. This feature is
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
converging trade winds N of Puerto Rico, from 19N to 25N between
59W and 70W. Farther NE, a surface trough curves westward from a
1016 mb low at 30N54W through 29N59W to 39N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near these features N of 28N between 51W and
65W. Near the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front runs
southwestward from a low W of Azores across 31N44W to 21N54W.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 130 nm SE of the
front. Another upper-level trough near 29N18W is triggering
scattered showers over the Canary Islands, N of 25N between the NW
African coast and 19W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh with locally
strong ENE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from
the Greater Antilles northward to beyond 31N between 59W and the
Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE
to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen near the Cabo Verde
Islands from 12N to 25N between the Mauritania-W Sahara coast and
28W, and from the Equator to 15N between 28W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
continue to extend from the Florida Straits through the Old
Bahama Channel to the area N of Hispaniola. Winds will increase to
strong N of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens in the area. A low pressure with a frontal
trough over the central Atlantic will move south of 30N, and will
bring an increase in winds to gale force winds for a brief period
with building seas mainly across the eastern forecast waters today
into Friday. N to NE swell behind the trough will propagate
across the waters E of the Bahamas late this week and into the
upcoming weekend.

$$ Torres
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