[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a 1016 mb low near 30N54W and a
1039 mb N Atlantic high E of Nova Scotia is generating near-gale
to gale winds east-southeast of Bermuda. Seas of 13 to 15 ft will
persist near the strongest winds. Gradual improvement is expected
starting late Thu night or early Fri morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf off the
Texas/Louisiana coast late Thu morning, then move slowly
southeastward through Fri night. Near-gale to gale winds will
develop behind the front across W central and NW Gulf by early Thu
afternoon, before spreading to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Seas
in these areas will build and reach 9 to 11 ft by Thu evening,
then quickly rise further to between 15 and 18 ft late Thu night.
Marine conditions should begin to subside from N to S starting
late Fri evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough lies mostly across the central African continent.
An ITCZ extends from 02S28W to N of Sao Luis, Brazil at EQ43W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the Equator between 34W
and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning.

A surface trough stretches east-northeastward from a 1005 mb low W
of Corpus Christi across the NW Gulf to near New Orleans.
Scattered showers are present along and just S of the Texas-
Louisiana-Mississippi coastline. Otherwise, a surface ridge
extends southwestward from N Florida across the central Gulf to
SE Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft are seen over the NE and E central Gulf. Moderate
to fresh SE to S winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted for the
central and SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate
SE to S winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

As for the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters producing fresh to strong SE winds over the E Gulf with
building seas, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over
the W Gulf through Thu morning. A cold front will push off the
coast of Texas Thu near noon. The front will reach from SE
Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening, from near Panama
City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri evening,
and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
early Sat morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front across the
W Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve
by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
Hispaniola and E Cuba. Otherwise, a ENE to ESE trade-wind pattern
continues to dominate the entire basin. Fresh to strong trades
with seas at 6 to 7 ft are present over the S central basin, N of
the Colombian coast; and also across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

As for the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will continue to support fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the
Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri night. Mainly
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning.

A robust upper-level trough stretches from the N central Atlantic
across 31N63W to the N coast of Hispaniola. This feature is
enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
converging trade winds N of Puerto Rico, from 19N to 25N between
59W and 70W. Farther NE, a surface trough curves westward from a
1016 mb low at 30N54W through 29N59W to 39N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near these features N of 28N between 51W and
65W. Near the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front runs
southwestward from a low W of Azores across 31N44W to 21N54W.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 130 nm SE of the
front. Another upper-level trough near 29N18W is triggering
scattered showers over the Canary Islands, N of 25N between the NW
African coast and 19W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh with locally
strong ENE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from
the Greater Antilles northward to beyond 31N between 59W and the
Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE
to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen near the Cabo Verde
Islands from 12N to 25N between the Mauritania-W Sahara coast and
28W, and from the Equator to 15N between 28W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

As for the forecast W of 65W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
extend from the Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel to
the area N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Winds will increase to
strong N of Hispaniola and E Cuba tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens in the area. A low pressure with a frontal
trough over the central Atlantic will move S of 30N tonight, and
will bring an increase in winds to gale force and seas mainly
across the E forecast waters on Thu. N to NE swell behind the
trough will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late
this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$

Chan
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