[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 04N09W
to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to the coast of Brazil
near the equator. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted E of 14W along the monsoon trough to the
southern coast of Liberia. Scattered showers are also noted along
and S of the ITCZ west of 28W from 03S to the Equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The analyzed warm front stall E of 90W, which stretches from the
mouth of the Mississippi River to the SE gulf near 24N84W.
Scattered showers are noted along the boundary. Ahead of the front
strong S-SE winds are impacting the eastern gulf and Florida
Straits. Rough seas are reported in the area with one buoy located
60 nm south of Dauphin Island, Alabama reporting 12 ft. Conditions
are better behind the front with moderate to fresh S-SE winds.
Buoys are reporting 5-7 ft seas in the SW gulf and 7-9 ft in the
NW gulf. A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Bay of
Campeche with no significant convection noted in the vicinity.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the east-central
Gulf of Mexico will continue through Thu with building seas in
the northeastern Gulf. The next cold front will push off the coast
of Texas early Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola
Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche early Fri, from the
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sat, then begin to
weaken over the SE Gulf. Strong to gale force northerly winds and
building seas are expected across the western Gulf Thu night and
Fri. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging from north of the area is maintaining a
pressure gradient with a 1009 mb low pressure over Colombia. This
is generating a strong NE wind in the Windward Passage with fresh
winds S of Cuba and N of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. A shearline is analyzed from 24N67W in the Mona Passage
to 18N75W to 20N83W. Scattered showers are present along the
Windward Passage and south of Cuba near Isla de la Juventud. Seas
are are generally 3-5 ft across the basin with up to 7 ft likely
south of the Windward Passage and in the Colombian Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the
Windward Passage, and off Colombia, especially at night, through
Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee
of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in the
Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu into
Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical western Atlantic is under the influence of a high
pressure ridge causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and
3-5 ft seas north of 27N. South of this latitude, moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are observed with 5-7 ft seas. Strong E winds are
impacting the Old Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. In the
central Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N50W to 21N60W.
Scattered moderate convection extends roughly 180 nm ahead of
this feature. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front with moderate conditions
behind. Rough seas of 8-10 ft are expected north of 27N near the
cold front. In the eastern Atlantic, a weak cut-off low pressure
is analyzed near 26N30W. The associated convection with this
system is decreasing, however some thunderstorms are observed in
the SE quadrant in an area of fresh southerly winds. Moderate
conditions dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds extend from the
Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel to the area N of
Hispaniola. Winds north of Hispaniola will increase to strong to
near gale force Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens in the
area. A cold front over the central Atlantic will move south of
30N Wed night, and extend from 27N65W to 31N69W early Thu and from
23N65W to 26N73W to 31N74W early Fri. Strong NE to E winds will
follow the cold front, mainly E of 70W, Thu into Fri night. N to
NE swell with the front will increase seas NE of the Bahamas late
this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Torres
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