[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The 12-hour forecast consists of: a surface trough along 31N56W
30N60W 31N66W. Expect the gale-force winds, and sea heights that
range from 12 feet to 15 feet, to the north of the trough to
60W. Expect gale-force winds, with the surface trough, for the
next 24 hours to 36 hours. Expect the sea heights
to range from 12 feet to 15 feet for the next 36 hours to 48
hours.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The 36-hour forecast consists of a cold front along 30N90W
20N96W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9
feet to 12 feet, from 22N to 27N to the west of the cold front.
Gale-force wind conditions are expected until at least 48 hours
for the forecast period.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along
04N/05N, to 15W, and then to 02N26W. A small part of the ITCZ is
along 02S/03S, from 30W to 38W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 15W
eastward. The GFS model guidance for 500 mb suggests that a
cyclonic circulation center is near 08N41W, and that an
anticyclonic circulation center is near 13N51W. A trough extends
to the coast of NE Brazil. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong was within 150 nm off the coast of Brazil near 03N51W, as
late as today, 02/1500 UTC, and 02/1600 UTC. That precipitation
has been weakening and dissipating with time, during the last
few hours. It is possible that some rainshowers may be remaining
in that area. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area
from 08N southward between 30W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force wind conditions, and the sea heights, related to a
cold front, during the next 48 hours or so.

Strong to near gale-force winds are from 25N northward between
85W and 89W.

A dissipating warm front is in the north central Gulf waters.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 23N northward.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong SE
winds in the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S
winds in the eastern Gulf. The next cold front will push off the
coast of Texas early Thu. The front will reach from SE Louisiana
to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, from near Panama City,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri morning, and
from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
early Sat morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and
building seas of up to 14-15 ft are expected in the wake of the
front across the western Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions
will gradually improve by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic
Ocean. A shearline continues from 20N60W, to the Mona Passage,
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, to 20N84W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented
trough is along the line from 30N72W to SE Cuba. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous moderate, and isolated strong, is from 20N
to 23N between 65W and 78W, from Cuba to the SE Bahamas.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from the
shearline northward, in the Caribbean Sea.

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing rainshowers,
in the remainder of the area.

Strong winds are within 80 nm of the southern coast of Cuba
between 78W and 82W. Mostly fresh, to some strong, winds are
elsewhere from the shearline northward between 76W and 82W.
Mostly moderate, to some fresh, winds are in the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
from 15N northward from 80W westward. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

High pressure that is to the north of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage,
and off Colombia, especially at night, through Fri night. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through
Thu night. Similar winds are expected in the Gulfs of Honduras
and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are
forecast also
to the south of Hispaniola Thu into Fri night. Mainly moderate
trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force wind conditions, and the sea heights, related to a
surface trough, during the next 48 hours or so.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N47W to 26N50W to
20N60W. A shearline continues from 20N60W, to the Mona Passage,
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, to 20N84W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. A separate surface trough is from
120 nm to 300 nm to the NW of the cold front, curving through
21N64W 25N57W 30N55W. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented trough is
along the line from 30N72W to SE Cuba. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous moderate, and isolated strong, is from 20N to 23N
between 65W and 78W, from Cuba to the SE Bahamas. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 300 nm to the
east of the dissipating cold front, and from the dissipating
cold front westward and northwestward.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 27N26W. A surface trough
curves away from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 24N25W
20N30W, and 17N38W. A second and separate surface trough is in
the near-shore waters of Africa from 11N to 30N. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous moderate and widely scattered strong is
within 700 nm of the 1016 mb low pressure, in the NE quadrant.

The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, from the
dissipating cold front/shearline northward.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W westward
from the Bahamas northward, and from 25N northward between 65W
and 70W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere,
from 40W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.  Strong winds are from
120 nm to 320 nm to the north of the shearline between 62W and
70W, and within 250 nm to the north of Cuba between 74W and
Florida and the Straits of Florida. Mostly fresh, and some
strong, winds are from 10N southward between 40W and 50W, and
from 01N to 07N between 30W and 40W.

Fresh trade winds extend from the Florida Straits through the
Old Bahama Channel to the area N of Hispaniola. Winds north of
Hispaniola will increase to strong tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens in the area. A frontal trough over the central
Atlantic will move south of 30N tonight, and will bring an
increase in winds and seas mainly across the eastern forecast
waters on Thu. N to NE swell with the front will increase seas
NE of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
MT
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