[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W
to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to the coast of Brazil
near the equator. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted west of 28W from 03S to 05N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A newly formed warm front stretches from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to the SE gulf. Scattered showers are noted
along the boundary. Ahead of the front strong S-SE winds are
impacting the eastern gulf and Florida Straits. Rough seas are
reported in the area with one buoy located 60 nm south of Dauphin
Island, Alabama reporting 12 ft. Conditions are better behind the
front with moderate to fresh S-SE winds. Buoys are reporting 5-7
ft seas in the SW gulf and 7-9 ft in the NW gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the east-
central Gulf of Mexico will continue tonight through Thu with
building seas in the northeastern Gulf. The next cold front will
push off the coast of Texas early Thu. The front will reach from
near Pensacola, Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche
early Fri, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula
early Sat, then begin to weaken over the SE Gulf. Strong to gale
force northerly winds and building seas are expected across the
western Gulf Thu night and Fri. Conditions will gradually improve
by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging from north of the area is maintaining a
pressure gradient with a 1009 mb low pressure over Colombia. This
is generating a strong NE wind in the Windward Passage with fresh
winds S of Cuba and N of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. Seas are are generally 3-5 ft across the basin with up
to 7 ft likely south of the Windward Passage and in the Colombian
Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across
the Windward Passage, and off Colombia, especially at night,
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in
the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu into
Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical western Atlantic is under the influence of a high
pressure ridge causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and
3-5 ft seas north of 27N. South of this latitude, moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are observed with 5-7 ft seas. Strong E winds are
impacting the Old Bahama Channel and Florida Straits. In the
central Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N50W to 21N60W.
Scattered moderate convection extends roughly 180 nm ahead of
this feature. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front with moderate conditions
behind. Rough seas of 8-10 ft are expected north of 27N near the
cold front. In the eastern Atlantic, a weak cut-off low pressure
is analyzed near 26N30W. The associated convection with this
system is decreasing, however some thunderstorms are observed in
the SE quadrant in an area of fresh southerly winds. Moderate
conditions dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds extend from the
Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel to the area N of
Hispaniola. Winds north of Hispaniola will increase to strong to
near gale force Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens in the
area. A cold front over the central Atlantic will move south of
30N Wed night, and extend from 27N65W to 31N69W early Thu and from
23N65W to 26N73W to 31N74W early Fri. Strong NE to E winds will
follow the cold front, mainly E of 70W, Thu into Fri night. N to
NE swell with the front will increase seas NE of the Bahamas late
this week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
FLYNN
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