[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 26W
and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1012 mb low pressure near
over Texas and 1023 mb high pressure over west-central Florida is
producing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the east-central
Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail in this area. Moderate
to fresh SE winds dominate the rest of the Gulf, except for light
W flow behind the trough in the far NW Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Gulf
will gradually diminish this evening as the low pres continues to
move N. Fresh to strong SE to S return flow will then continue
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Thu.
The next cold front will push off the coast of Texas early Thu.
The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the south-
central Bay of Campeche early Fri, from the Florida Big Bend to
the Yucatan Peninsula early Sat, then begin to weaken over the SE
Gulf. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas are
expected across the western Gulf Thu night and Fri. Conditions
will gradually improve by late in the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered over west-central Florida is maintaining a
a tight pressure gradient between it and 1012 mb low pressure
over Colombia. This is generating strong winds in the Windward
Passage, with fresh winds S of of Cuba, around Jamaica, and N of
Colombia. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in
the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the eastern basin. No
significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across
the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night,
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in
the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu into
Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure centered over west-central Florida is drifting E,
leading to mainly gentle winds N of 24N and W of 65W. To the S,
moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail. A stationary front
extends from 31N52W to 20N70W. Moderate N winds and decaying seas
of 6 to 8 ft are behind this front, with mainly moderate S winds
and seas of 7 to 9 ft ahead of it. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the front, N of 25N and extending E of 50W. Farther
east, a surface trough extends from 31N33W to 21N35W with no
significant convection. Elsewhere in the central and eastern
Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the pattern with
winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas
in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region.

For the forecast W of 65W, winds north of Hispaniola will
increase to strong to near gale force Wed night as the pressure
gradient tightens in the area. A cold front over the central
Atlantic will move south of 30N Wed night, and extend from 27N65W
to 31N69W early Thu and from 23N65W to 26N73W to 31N74W early Fri.
Strong NE to E winds will follow the cold front, mainly E of 70W,
Thu into Fri night. N to NE swell with the front will increase
seas NE of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming
weekend.

$$
ERA
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