[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 220840
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Peter is a disorganized tropical depression.  The low-level center
is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles
north of Puerto Rico.  Most of the associated thunderstorm activity
remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of
westerly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a
0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60
n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the
circulation has become quite elongated.  Since the hostile
conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not
expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast.
The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours
and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner.

The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 310/10 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn
northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week
as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer
trough.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the
previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across
northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.5N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.2N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N  66.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 24.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.1N  65.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z 26.5N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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