[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 220833
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical
depression.  The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small
area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt
of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining
into the circulation.  Since the shear is expected to increase
during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual
weakening seems likely.  Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by
60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence
in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is
low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the
end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold
on to the system for a while longer.

The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt.  The system is
expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the
west side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  On Friday,  a turn to the
northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the
southeast side of a deep-layer trough.  The models are in good
agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 23.4N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 24.2N  39.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 25.5N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 27.0N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 28.4N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 29.5N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 30.1N  36.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 31.2N  31.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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