[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 221438
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds with no
significant convection, with an earlier burst dissipating during the
last few hours.  Recently received scatterometer data show 25-30 kt
winds in the northeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt.  The cyclone remains in an environment of northwesterly
shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been
entraining into the circulation.  Since the shear is expected to
increase during the next 2-3 days, the cyclone is expected to
gradually weaken during this time.  However, confidence in the
timing of when the system will stop producing organized convection
is still low.  The new intensity forecast calls for Rose to
degenerate into a remnant low between 60-72 h, but it is possible
this could happen earlier.

The initial motion is now 305/8 kt. The depression is expected to
turn northward in 24-36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  By 48-60 h,  a turn
to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the
southeast side of a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic.
Based on the initial position and motion, the first 36 h of the
forecast track are shifted a little to the west of the previous
track.  After that time, the new forecast track is similar to the
previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 23.6N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 24.6N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 26.1N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 27.6N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 28.8N  39.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 29.4N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 29.9N  34.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 31.5N  30.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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