[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
gale force winds off the coast of the Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela tonight. Seas are forecast to build up to 10-15 ft with
the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean. For more
information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W and south
of 21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection, likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from
07N to 11N between 25W and 32W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 53W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 52W and 54W.

A new tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near the Lesser
Antilles along 64W from 22N southward. This wave is not
producing any notable convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal near
14N16W and continues to 09N32W to 09N42W. Segments of the ITCZ
extend from 09N42W to 09N50W and from 07N54W to 09N60W. Aside
from the convection described in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between
50W and 57W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is noted from 27N92W to 26N97W into the mouth of the Rio
Grande. Scattered moderate convection is evident along the
trough. Elsewhere a weak surface ridge extends from South Florida
to the coast of Tamaulipas. Light breezes are noted over the
eastern Gulf with nearly flat seas. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly winds are observed over the western Gulf, with 2 to 4
ft seas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sink southward through
the forecast period, providing tranquil conditions across the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong E to
SE winds will pulse nightly NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through
Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section for more details.

Recent ship and buoy observations and earlier scatterometer data
have been showing strong to near gale force winds over much of
the south-central and southwest Caribbean, with rough seas. Fresh
to strong winds are also likely across the Bay Islands and Gulf
of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere, with
slight to moderate seas. Other than some thunderstorms off
western Panama, no major showers or thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined
with low pressure N Colombia continues to support fresh to strong
E winds over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds will pulse
tonight north of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela and end by
Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the
central Caribbean through Fri, reaching as far north as
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in
the afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N48W and another 1026
mb high pressure near 30N30W. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are noted near the coast of Morocco. Fresh to strong NNE winds
were detected by the latest scatterometer pass near the Canary
Islands. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Atlantic north of 20N west of
65W, with 5-8 ft seas elsewhere in the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
in the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola through Fri.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 20N. A
low along a frontal boundary will sink southward during the
weekend off the NE Florida coast. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the weekend into early next week while this system meanders
offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia, and
northeastern Florida. Regardless of development, showers and
thunderstorms with moderate to fresh winds can be expected over
the weekend.

$$
Christensen
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