[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
gale force winds off the coast of the Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through early this morning. A Wednesday evening ASCAT
pass measured near gale force winds from 11N-13N between 73W-77W
and also in the Gulf of Venezuela. It possible that there are
currently some gale force winds within that area. Seas will be
10-14 ft with the strongest winds across the south-central
Caribbean. The gales are forecast to end prior to sunrise today.
For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Heavy Rainfall in southern Central America: Heavy rainfall is
expected over Costa Rica, western Panama and southeastern
Nicaragua through this weekend. The heaviest rain is expected over
Costa Rica Friday night into Saturday. These rains could cause
significant flooding and mudslides in some areas. Currently,
scattered moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms are seen
along the Caribbean coast from SE Nicaragua through western
Panama.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W south of 19N,
moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely
enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from 06.5N to 12N
between 26W and 38W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from
20N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 12.5N between 51W and 55W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 66W from 12N-23N, moving W at
20 kt. This wave is not producing any notable shower activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W and extends W to 11N30W to
09N42W. The ITCZ is from 09N42W to 09N54W, then continues W of a
tropical wave, from 09N56W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are
along the ITCZ between 43W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high pressure near 26N85W is along a weak
surface ridge oriented east-west along 26N across the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across most
of the basin, north of 24N. A diurnal surface trough is moving
westward in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are occurring there, south of 22N. Winds near the
trough are likely fresh, but could be locally strong in
thunderstorms. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and
1-2 ft elsewhere in the Gulf.

The surface ridge will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico,
providing tranquil conditions through the weekend. Fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds will pulse nightly NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section for more details. Fresh to
strong trades prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean and
are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle winds are
found between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Seas over 8 ft
prevail south of 17N between 72W-83W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere,
except 2-4 ft south of Cuba.

Dry weather prevails across most of the Caribbean, except for a
few showers seen between western Cuba and the Isle of Youth.
Additionally, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
extends offshore of western Panama through southern Nicaragua for
about 60 nm. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over
western Honduras, southern Belize and eastern Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue across the
central Caribbean through Fri, reaching as far north as Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the
afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage through Fri.
Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras through early this morning, and then again tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure near 33N48W
to 27N70W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Gentle anticyclonic winds
are near the ridge axis, mainly from 25N-30N between 60W and
Florida. Moderate trades prevail farther south, with fresh E winds
seen north of Hispaniola on the latest ASCAT pass. Fresh trades
generally prevail from 14N-24N between 35W-60W. Seas are 3-5 ft
across the western Atlantic, except locally up to 7 ft just north
of Hispaniola. Seas are 6-7 ft in the area of fresh trades in the
tropical Atlantic. An upper-level low near 26N69W is producing a
few showers to its northwest, from 25N-31N between 69W-75W.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
in the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola through Fri.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 20N. A
broad trough of low pressure is forecast to move offshore of the
southeastern United States coastline on Friday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
gradual development over the weekend into early next week while
this system meanders offshore of the coasts of South Carolina,
Georgia and northeastern Florida. Expect showers and tstorms with
winds of at least moderate to fresh speeds over the weekend in
that area.

$$
Hagen
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