[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
gale force winds off the coast of the Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela tonight. Seas are forecast to build up to 10-15 ft with
the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean. For more
information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 34W and south of
21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is noted from 06N to 12N
between 29W and 35W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 51W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is
noted with the wave at this time.

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the E Caribbean near
the Lesser Antilles along 62W from 22N southward. This wave is
not producing any notable convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal,
extending from 14N16W to 09N42W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from
09N42W to 09N50W and from 07N54W to 08N60W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 20W and 25W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ within
80 nm of the coast of NE Venezuela and Guyana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends over the NW Gulf of
Mexico from 30N92W to 27N97W, and is producing scattered showers.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of the
subtropical ridge. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds
and seas from 2-4 ft prevail across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High extends westward along 27N and
towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will continue
to sink southward through the forecast period, providing tranquil
conditions across the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the
week. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse nightly NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section for more details.

Surface observations and recent scatterometer data depict strong
to near gale force winds from the coast of Colombia north to 14N
between 73W and 78W, with seas of 8-15 ft. Elsewhere in the
basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail with 5-8 ft seas, except
in the NW Caribbean where trades are mainly moderate with seas of
3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined
with low pressure N Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong E winds over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds will
pulse tonight north of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong winds will continue across the central Caribbean through
Fri, reaching as far north as Hispaniola adjacent waters. Fresh
to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early evenings
in the Windward Passage through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure near 33N48W and another 1026
mb high pressure near 36N41W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
noted near the coast of Morocco. Fresh to strong NNE winds were
detected by the latest scatterometer pass near the Canary Islands.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Atlantic north of 20N west of 65W, with
5-8 ft seas elsewhere in the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in
the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola through Fri.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 20N.
Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High will prevail
along 27N, leading toward quiescent conditions across the
remainder of the western Atlantic.

$$
Mahoney/SDR/HN
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