[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT35 KNHC 091148
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sandy
Hook, New Jersey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Elsa will move near or over eastern Long Island and the
coast of southern New England today, and then offshore the
northeastern United States coast by late this afternoon.  The
system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today.
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44066 located about 85 miles (140 km)
east of Long Beach, New Jersey recently measured a peak one-minute
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread into the warning area
over the northeastern U.S. coast this morning and continue through
early afternoon.  Elsa is likely to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.  Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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