[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 091446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near
latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the
northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa
will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New
England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern
United States coast by this evening. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual
weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York
recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow
site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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