[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 090837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Little
Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning,
and move near or over the northeastern United States by late
morning and this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected through today, and
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 78
mph (126 km/h) was measured by a WeatherFlow site in Ludlam Bay,
New Jersey, while a wind gust to 71 mph was observed in Beach
Haven, New Jersey. These two wind reports appear to have been
associated with nearby tornadoes.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning.  These winds will spread
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states from
late this morning into the afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.  Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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