[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 090547
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA TOWARD DELAWARE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 75.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LEWES DELAWARE
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Fenwick
Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River,
Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island, Delaware to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 75.7 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states this morning and move
near or over the northeastern United States this afternoon and
tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  No significant change in strength is expected through today,
and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center.  NOAA buoy 44009 near the mouth of
Delaware Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h),
gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast this morning.  These winds will spread northward
in the warning area over the northeastern states later today.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through today, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England.  Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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