[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Jul 6 21:57:57 CDT 2021

WTUS82 KTAE 070257
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ159>161-071100-

Hurricane Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 28
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
1057 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Elsa Moving Northward Parallel to SW Florida Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, Lanier, Lowndes,
      and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 200 miles south-southeast of Apalachicola or about 160
      miles south of Steinhatchee River
    - 27.3N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Elsa is currently just offshore the SW Florida coast and
is moving northward. Although some of the convection near the center
has diminished, Elsa remains a category 1 hurricane. Elsa is now
forecast to weaken slightly tonight or early tomorrow morning as it
parallels the coast. Elsa is forecast to make landfall somewhere along
the FL Nature Coast late Wednesday morning as a strong tropical storm
or weak hurricane.

Watches and Warnings remain the same for this advisory, and no
meaningful change of forecast impacts are expected. Conditions will
begin to deteriorate across the Southeast Big Bend and Apalachee Bay
tonight as Elsa approaches the region. Strong tropical storm force
winds will be possible across the SE Big Bend into far South-Central
GA, with some gusts to hurricane force possible near the Dixie County
coast. Storm surge of 3 to 5 feet will be possible for Apalachee Bay
east of the Aucilla River. Surge of 2 to 4 feet will be possible for
Central Apalachee Bay, mainly due to breezy easterly winds on the
north side of Elsa. Any small wobbles to the east or west by Elsa on
approach can have large impacts on where this highest forecast surge
will be realized. Flooding rains will be possible across the area,
with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated pockets of 5 to 6 inches
possible across the SE Big Bend. Saturated soils from rainfall the
past few days will make it easier for the forecast rainfall with Elsa
to create flooding issues. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of
the eastern Big Bend and South-Central Georgia to account for this
threat. Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible across the far
Southeast Big Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Dixie County. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the eastern Big Bend and South-Central Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Apalachee bay east of the Aucilla River. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across elsewhere across Apalachee Bay.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the eastern Big Bend and South-Central
Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts elsewhere across the area.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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