[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 06/0600 UTC, is near 23.9N
82.3W. ELSA is moving toward the NNW, or 340 degrees, 10 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical
Storm Elsa is about 43 nm/80 km to the N of Havana in Cuba, and
52 nm/95 km to the SSW of Key West in Florida. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the S
quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
200 nm of the center in the N quadrant. This precipitation is
reaching parts of the Bahamas near Andros Island, the Florida
Keys, and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Other scattered moderate is
reaching 28N in Florida, and in the adjacent coastal waters on
either side of Florida. The hazards affecting land will be:
wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornadoes, flooding, and surf.
Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: monsoon trough-related precipitation surrounds
this tropical wave, from the monsoon trough southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 14N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This
tropical wave was re-positioned based on long-term satellite
imagery. Precipitation: monsoon trough/ITCZ-related rainshowers
and thunderstorms are within 480 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, from 10N southward.

A tropical wave is along 60W, from 11N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 120 nm on either
side of the tropical wave from 08N to 12N.

An inland Central America tropical wave is along 89W from 18N
southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. The tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize southward, beyond El Salvador. Precipitation: warming
cloud top temperatures, and dissipating but remnant rainshowers
are in Central America, to the east of the tropical wave. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 74W westward in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N24W, and 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from
06N36W, to 03N44W, and 04N51W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 13N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Elsa is along the NW coast of Cuba.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in
the S quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm of the center in the N quadrant. This
precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas near Andros
Island, the Florida Keys, and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Other
scattered moderate is reaching 28N in Florida, and in the
adjacent coastal waters on either side of Florida.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
north central Gulf of Mexico. An inland stationary front passes
through central Georgia, to central Louisiana, to NE Texas.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 22N northward,
away from the T.S. Elsa precipitation.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of Florida, toward
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico
along 20N.

An inland thermal trough is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

Tropical Storm Elsa is near 23.5N 82.3W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Elsa will will strengthen slightly as it moves into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24.9N 82.9W Tue morning with
maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 26.9N 83.3W
Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then
maintain intensity as it tracks north-northeast to just offshore
the Florida coast near 29.2N 83.1W early Wed, then weaken as it
moves inland southeastern Georgia Wed evening. The marine
conditions will continue to deteriorate in most of the far
eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. Atlantic Ocean high
pressure will build across the area in the wake of Elsa, through
the next few days. It is likely for swells from Elsa to spread
throughout the basin during the period. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central
Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa is along the NW coast of Cuba.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in
the S quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm of the center in the N quadrant. This
precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas near Andros
Island, the Florida Keys, and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Other
scattered moderate is reaching 28N in Florida, and in the
adjacent coastal waters on either side of Florida.

An inland Central America tropical wave is along 89W from 18N
southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15
knots. The tropical wave extends from the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize southward, beyond El Salvador. Precipitation: warming
cloud top temperatures, and dissipating but remnant rainshowers
are in Central America, to the east of the tropical wave. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 13N southward from 74W westward in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Elsa near 23.5N 82.3W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa
will strengthen slightly as it moves into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico near 24.9N 82.9W Tue morning with maximum sustained
winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Fresh to strong winds will continue
south of Cuba through Tue morning, and gradually improve, as
Elsa continues to move more to the north, away from the basin.
Widespread fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the
south central Caribbean Sea by Tuesday, and continue through the
rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Honduras, from Tuesday night through the rest of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N between 76W and Georgia.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm to the south of the stationary front, between 75W
and Florida and Georgia.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N64W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240
nm of the center in the E semicircle.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 18N northward from Florida eastward. A surface ridge
extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center that is near 34N44W,
to 31N55W, to 29N72W, to NE Florida.

Fresh-to-strong winds, and sea heights ranging from 6 feet to 8
feet, are within 60 nm to 170 nm on either side of the line that
runs from the western sections of the Canary Islands, to 19N32W,
and to 19N44W. The area of winds and seas is comparatively
narrower near the Canary Islands, and within 170 nm on either
side of the line between 19N32W and 19N44W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift eastward through
Wednesday, as Tropical Storm Elsa moves northward in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh southeast winds will develop off the
northern and central Florida coasts on Wednesday and Wednesday
night, as Elsa moves inland the northern Gulf coast. High
pressure then will build westward across the area through
Saturday night. The winds on Thursday will become gentle to
moderate once again, with tranquil conditions expected for the
remainder of the period.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net