[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 22.7N 81.9W at 05/2100 UTC
or 40 nm SE of Havana Cuba moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected
to continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours,
move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the
Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is near the
center of Elsa over western Cuba and adjacent waters from 19N-
25N between 79W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection associated with a feeder band is noted farther NE
affecting south Florida and western Atlantic from 24N-29N
between 74W-83W. Heavy rain might cause urban and river flooding,
and even flash flooding in these areas. Stay up to date with the
latest information from your local weather forecast office.

Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 01N-17N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from 03N-07N between 15W-28W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from
15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N-09N between 33W-45W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 59W from
10N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found between 07N-10N from 50W-61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from  the African coast near the
Senegal-Mauritania at 16N17W to near 08N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N26W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from
04N39W to 03N50W. Aside from convection described in the
Tropical Wave section above, there is no other significant
convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for convection over the
Florida Straits and peninsula associated with Tropical Storm
Elsa.

An upper-level trough is over the N Gulf near 30N92W, while a
surface ridge is over the central along 25N. Convergent winds
near the ridge axis are coupling with the trough to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N and central W
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present across most of the basin, except locally fresh winds and
seas up to 5 ft near thunderstorms.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will move to 24.1N
82.7W Tue morning, 26.1N 83.4W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 83.6W Wed
morning, and inland to 30.6N 83.0W Wed afternoon. Expect for
marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the far
eastern Gulf waters this evening and continuing through mid-week.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will
prevail through early in the week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue across the north- central Gulf through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa has made landfall over Cuba. Please see the
Special Features section above for more details.

Fresh to near-gale winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present just
E of Elsa, over the waters between western Cuba and Jamaica.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will move into the
Straits of Florida near 24.1N 82.7W by Tue morning. Fresh to
strong winds will continue south of Cuba through Tue morning and
gradually improve as Elsa continues to move farther north away
from the basin. Otherwise, widespread fresh to strong trade winds
will increase in the south-central Caribbean by Tue and continue
through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through the rest of
the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to the mid-
Atlantic, while an upper-level trough is over the mid-Atlantic
US coast. Convergent low-level SE to S winds, S of the front are
enhanced by divergent winds related to the upper trough;
resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
the northern Bahamas to well E of the Florida coast near 74W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in
this area.

A large 1030 mb high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic
continues to provide light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
N of 25N between 30W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present from 13N to 25N between the
African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

As for the forecast W of 65W: Atlantic high pressure will shift
slightly eastward through Mon in response to a stationary front
lingering N of the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail through Wed. Off the Florida coast, winds will become
fresh to strong by Wed as the center of Elsa moves inland over
northern Florida. By Thu, winds will become gentle to moderate
once again with tranquil conditions expected for the rest of the
week.

$$
ERA
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