[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 24.5N 82.6W at 06/1200 UTC
or about 50 nm west of Key West, Florida moving NNW or 340 DEG at
10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 kt.
Latest satellite imagery shows a very large and persistent cluster
of numerous moderate to strong convection southeast and south of
Elsa covering the area from 20N to 24N between 80W-83W. Several
rain bands consisting of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are noted from 24N to 25N between 80W-83W. This
activity covers the Florida Keys and portions of South Florida.
Other similar activity is as far north as Lake Okeechobee and
surrounding areas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are along and offshore South and central Florida extending
eastward for about 60 nm.

The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall,
tornadoes, flooding, and surf. With regards to rainfall, Elsa is
expected to produce 3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches across the Florida Keys and over the southwest and
western portions of the Florida peninsula and 2 to 4 inches across
the rest of Florida with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches
through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash,
urban, and minor river flooding. Elsa is expected to bring 3 to 5
inches with possible isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across
portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina and 1 to 3 inches across coastal portions of North
Carolina into southeastern Virginia with isolated totals of
up to 5 inches Wed night through Thu night, which might lead
to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML and the latest Elsa
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W/24W
from 01N to 17N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm east of
the wave from 04N to 06N and within 300 nm west of the wave from
04N to 05N.

Another far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along
35W south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm west of the wave from 02N to 05N and
west of the wave to 40W from 07N to 09N.

A central Atlantic low-amplitude tropical wave has its axis along
62W south of 13N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave lies
to the southeast of an upper-level trough. Divergence present
aloft to the southeast of the trough is helping to develop and
sustain clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection within
180 nm east of the wave from 09N-10N and within 60 nm west of the
wave from 09N to 11N. This activity is impacting Trinidad and
Tobago.

The previously mentioned tropical wave that was along 89W is now
being described in the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa at
12N17W and continues to 08N28W and to 07N36W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N43W and the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Aside
from convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between
40W and 42W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-45W,
north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of line from 06N45W to 06N49W and
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 15W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Elsa is near the Florida keys. See the Special
Features section above for details.

An upper-level trough extends from an upper-level low located
over eastern Louisiana southeastward to near 24N89W. The trough
is providing enough atmospheric instability to support isolated
showers and thunderstorms, and at times scattered showers and
thunderstorms, over some sections of the NW and N-central Gulf
waters. This activity should continue into Wed. Possible isolated
showers and thunderstorms are also over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is over the
area. An overnight ASCAT pass depicted generally gentle to
moderate southeast winds over the western half of the Gulf.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa is near 24.1N 82.4W 1007
mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move to near 25.7N 82.9W this afternoon,
to near 28.0N 83.1W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 60
kt gusts 75 kt, then track north-northeast and weaken to a
tropical depression inland near 30.4N 82.5W Wed afternoon. Marine
conditions will continue to deteriorate over most of the eastern
Gulf through Wed. Atlantic high pressure will then build across
the area in the wake of Elsa through the next few days. Swells
from Elsa are likely to spread throughout the basin during the
period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the north-central Gulf through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convective activity associated to Tropical Storm Elsa consists
of numerous moderate to strong convection from western Cuba
between 80W-83W extending southward to near 19N. This activity
thins out as it continues southward to near 18N84W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection that attendant to the tropical wave
along 62W is beginning to move into the far southeastern
Caribbean this morning. Expect for this activity spread westward
into the northeast section of Venezuela today. Some of this
activity might be attendant by gusty winds.

As for the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa near 24.1N 82.4W 1007 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through this afternoon allowing for fresh to strong southerly
winds just south of western Cuba to diminish later this morning.
Otherwise, widespread fresh to strong trade winds will begin to
increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning late Wed and
continue through the rest of the week. There is some possibility
for these trades to reach gale force speeds near the coast of
Colombia Thu night into Fri and again Fri night.  Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through
the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small upper-level low moving to the west is identified to be
near 23N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within
60 nm of the low. A stationary front is analyzed just north of
the area west of 75W to inland southeastern Georgia. Otherwise,
a ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center north of the
area near 35N44W westward to near 80W. High pressure covers the
area north of 20N and east of 80W.

Fresh to strong northeast winds are downwind of the Canary Islands
to near 26N and also from 28N to 31N between 10W-13W. An altimeter
data pass revealed wave heights of 6-8 ft from 13N to 25N between
26W-35W.

As for the forecast: High pressure over the area will shift
eastward through Wed as Tropical Storm Elsa tracks northward over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh southeast winds will develop off
the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as Elsa
moves inland the northern Gulf coast. High pressure will then
build westward across the area through Sat night. By Thu, winds
will become gentle to moderate once again with tranquil conditions
expected for the remainder of the period.

$$
Aguirre
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