[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Elsa is centered near 16.2N 69.0W at 03/0900 UTC or
170 nm ESE of Isla Beata Dominican Republic moving WNW at 27 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 12N to 18N between 63W and 70W.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and
portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to
move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Straits. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow
weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected
to be near or over Cuba. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 20W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N
between 10W and 26W.

A tropical waves extends south of 10N with axis near 42W, moving
W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N
between 35W and 51W.

A tropical wave extends S of 20N with axis near 76W, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 20N
between 74W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N26W to 07N32W. ITCZ
is along 07N32W to 03N43W to 02N50W. For convection information,
see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
to the central Gulf will continue to shift east-southeastward
through the weekend. Hurricane Elsa is forecast to move over
portions of central and western Cuba Sun night and Mon, the
Straits of Florida late Mon, then track over a portion of the
eastern Gulf Tue before possibly moving inland central Florida
late Tue. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the exact track
and intensity of Elsa.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Elsa near 16.2N 69.0W 998 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving WNW at 27 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt.
Elsa will move to 17.5N 72.3W this afternoon, 19.0N 75.4W Sun
morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 77.8W Sun
afternoon, inland to 22.1N 79.7W Mon morning, 23.4N 81.2W Mon
afternoon, and 24.7N 82.2W Tue morning. Elsa will change little in
intensity as it moves near 28.2N 83.0W early Wed. Otherwise, a
tropical wave in the central basin will move across the western
Caribbean through Sun night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Atlantic high pressure will continue to shift southeastward
through the weekend in response to a cold front that will approach
the far northwest forecast waters. The front will become
stationary just north of the area early next week. Hurricane Elsa
is forecast to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola today,
and move over portions of central and western Cuba Sun night and
Mon and the Straits of Florida late Mon before entering the
southeastern Gulf into Tue.

$$
Ramos
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