[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 03 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane ELSA, at 03/0600 UTC, is near 15.5N
67.8W, or within 330 nm southeast of the coast of the Dominican
Republic. ELSA is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 25
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 kt.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm SW
quadrant and within 150 nm NW quadrant. Tropical storm force
winds are within 120 NM of the center in the NW and SE
quadrants, within 130 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and
within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. The sea heights
of 12 feet or greater are within 210 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within
30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching
24 feet. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides are
possible as ELSA continues on its path. Please, read the latest
advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation:widely scattered isolated strong within 360 nm
east of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 10N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate isolated strong is
within 3000 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 120
nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N to 08N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N,
within 370 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N,
and from 18N southward from 83W westward in the waters that are
to the north of Honduras.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 24N92W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 86W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, 10N25W, to 07N32W. ITCZ is along 07N32W,
06N39W, and from 03N42W to 50W. Precipitation: scattered strong
is from 02N northward from 07W eastward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 23W and 31W,
and from the ITCZ southward and 45W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 24N92W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 86W westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. This upper level cyclonic wind flow is related
to the large scale cyclonic wind flow that also is in the
Atlantic Ocean from Florida to South Carolina. A surface trough
is inland, from east central Louisiana into central Texas.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, convective debris
clouds, and dissipating/remnant rainshowers cover the waters
that are from 27N northward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge passes through central Cuba, toward the
northwest and west, to the coast of Mexico at 24N/25N.

A surface ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean near 23N to
the central Gulf of Mexico, will continue to shift
east-southeastward through the weekend. A SW Gulf of Mexico
surface trough will continue to produce active weather through
possibly late tonight. Hurricane Elsa, in the eastern Caribbean
Sea, is forecast to move over parts of central and western Cuba
on Sunday night and Monday, into the Straits of Florida late
Monday, and then move into a part of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, before possibly moving inland
in central Florida late on Tuesday. There is a lot of
uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N,
within 370 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N,
and from 18N southward from 83W westward in the waters that are
to the north of Honduras.

An upper level inverted trough extends from Nicaragua northward,
to the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 18N southward from 83W westward, in
the waters that are to the north of Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N
southward from the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia
westward.

Hurricane Elsa near 14.8N 66.3W 995 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW
at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Elsa will
move to 16.1N 69.8W Sat morning, 17.6N 73.5W Sat evening, 19.0N
76.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.5N 78.5W Sun evening, weaken to
a tropical storm near 22.1N 80.4W Mon morning, and inland to
23.7N 81.7W Mon evening. Elsa will change little in intensity as
it moves near 27.7N 82.9W late Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave
in the central basin will move across the western Caribbean Sea
through Sunday night, with scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough, covers the waters that are to the east of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the Bahamas, from SE to NW, and elsewhere
from 23N northward from 63W westward. Another upper level trough
is about 700 nm to the ENE of Bermuda. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 50W and
65W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N27W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that is
near 30N56W, to 27N71W, to central Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will continue to shift
southeastward through the weekend, in response to a cold front
that will approach the far northwest forecast waters. The front
will become stationary just north of the area early next week.
Hurricane Elsa is in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsa is forecast
to move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late on Saturday
or on Saturday night, and move to parts of central and western
Cuba on Sunday night and Monday, and to the Straits of Florida
late on Monday, before entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
into Tuesday.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net