[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Elsa is centered near 14.2N 63.7W at 02/2100 UTC or
440 nm SE of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic moving W at 26 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is ongoing within 120 nm in the
eastern semicircle of Elsa and within 60 nm in the western
semicircle of Elsa. Seas are reaching as high as 25 kt near the
center of the hurricane. Elsa is forecast to continue to move
quickly to the WNW. Outer bands of Elsa may impact the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late tonight and early Sat as Elsa moves
toward the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti
by late Saturday, and toward eastern Cuba by Saturday night and
early Sunday. Heavy rainfall, flooding and mud slides are
possible in these areas. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for details. Also read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa, along 20W from 05N
to 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
also associated with the Monsoon Trough, is from 05N to 09N east
of 30W.

A low amplitude Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 01N to
10N, moving west at 10-15 kts. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 06N between 37W and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 74W and
76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N17W to 07N30W. Convection is described in the
tropical waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at
this time, as the low level flow east of 40W remains disrupted by
Hurricane Elsa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1017 mb high pressure over the
southeast Gulf near 23N85W, westward through the south-central
Gulf. Light breezes and slight seas are noted across the
southeast Gulf due to the high pressure. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are active within 90 nm of a trough over the
southwest Gulf extending from near 24N95W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 21N95W and to near 19N93W. An earlier scatterometer
pass showed strong southerly winds on the east side of this low
pressure during a period of stronger thunderstorms activity. But
the thunderstorms have since weakened in this area, and winds
have diminished accordingly. Seas may be 4 to 5 ft in the
southwest Gulf mainly due to the earlier activity. Gentle to
moderate SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf with 2 to 4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift east-southeastward
through the weekend. Hurricane Elsa over the eastern Caribbean
Sea is forecast to move over portions of central and western Cuba
Sun night and Mon, the Straits of Florida late Mon, then track
over a portion of the eastern Gulf Tue before possibly moving
inland central Florida late Tue. There is a lot of uncertainty
regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa, currently impacting the eastern Caribbean.

Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh E flow is evident,
although possibly reaching fresh to strong winds off the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and northeast Colombia. Fresh
winds are also possible off Honduras. Seas are 6 to 8 ft east of
75W and 3 to 5 ft west of 75W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident between Jamaica and northeast Nicaragua.

For the forecast, Hurricane Elsa will move to near 15.4N 67.5W
late tonight, to near 17.0N 71.7W Sat, then weaken slightly near
18.3N 74.8W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 70 kt
gusts 86 kt and move inland eastern Cuba Sun and weaken to a
tropical storm as it tracks over portions of central and western
Cuba Sun night and Mon, the Straits of Florida through late Mon
then track over a portion of the eastern Gulf Tue before possibly
moving inland central Florida late Tue. Meanwhile, a tropical
wave south of Haiti will move across the rest of the central
Caribbean through tonight and across the western Caribbean
through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa.

A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida continues to
support scattered scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
northeast of the northern Bahamas, north of 24N and west of 70W. Moderate
to locally strong S winds was noted earlier with this area of
convection. Fresh E winds are noted from Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands south of 22N west of 60W. The strong 1026 mb
subtropical high centered at 30N54W is supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast for west of 65W: the Atlantic high pressure
will continue to shift southeastward through the weekend in
response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest
forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of
the area early next week Hurricane Elsa is over the eastern
Caribbean, and is forecast to move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola late Sat or Sat night, and move over portions of
central and western Cuba Sun night and Mon and the Straits of
Florida late Mon before entering the southeastern Gulf into Tue.

$$
Christensen
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