[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. Elsa is centered near 17.0N 71.6W at 03/1500 UTC, moving
WNW at 25 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 18N
between 68W and 73W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 66W and 74W. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola
later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of
eastern Cuba on Sunday.  By Monday, Elsa is expected to move
across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of
the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends from 01N to 17N and along 20W,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N
to 11N between 14W and 25W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 43W and south of 10N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
10N between 40W and 45W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 79W and S of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, with
strongest activity south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 10N26W. ITCZ is from
10N26W to 08N40W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
05N46W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted from
00N-08N between 38W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system remains over land across the coastal states,
enhancing convection over the northern Gulf waters north of 27N
between 82W-94W. A high pressure ridge extending from the
Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue to shift east-
southeastward through the weekend. Elsa is forecast to move over
Cuba Sun and Mon, the Straits of Florida late Mon, then track
over a portion of the eastern Gulf Tue before possibly moving
inland central Florida late Tue. There is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the sections above for details on the now T.S.
Elsa and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern Caribbean between 60W-68W while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

Elsa will move to 18.1N 74.0W this evening, 19.6N 76.7W Sun
morning, 21.2N 78.9W Sun evening, inland to 22.7N 80.5W Mon
morning, 24.0N 81.8W Mon evening, and 25.9N 82.5W Tue morning.
Little change in strength is forecast tonight, but gradual
weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected
to be near or over Cuba. The tropical wave will move across the
western Caribbean through Sun night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves across the basin.

A pair of frontal boundaries prevail across the west Atlantic
enhancing convection north of 29N between 70W-80W. Atlantic high
pressure will continue to shift southeastward through the
weekend in response to the front. Scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong SW winds across the western Atlantic. The front
will become stationary just north of the area early next week.
Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola today, and move over portions of central and
western Cuba Sun night and Mon and the Straits of Florida late
Mon before entering the southeastern Gulf into Tue.

$$

ERA
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