[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front continues to move
south and east across the northwestern Gulf. This front will
continue to move SE across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching the SW
Gulf tonight.  Gale-force winds will develop W of the front
within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico by Mon morning,
then prevail through Mon night. Seas generated from the gale-
force winds will peak near 13 ft on Mon afternoon. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 06N34W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 03N to 16N between 09W to
41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gale
Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

At 29/1500 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered near 29N93W. A warm
front extends eastward from the low across the northeast Gulf to
the coast of Florida near 29N83W. A cold front extends south of
the low to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered moderate
convection is in the northwest Gulf, N of 26N between 86W to
97W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted ahead of the
warm front, with moderate to fresh southerly winds south of the
warm front and east of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW winds
are behind the front especially near the low. Seas range 1 to 3
ft, with upwards of 7 ft in the NW Gulf.

As the low moves northeastward inland Louisiana this afternoon
and the warm front lifts north of the Gulf this afternoon, the
front will accelerate eastward behind it into the western Gulf.
By tonight, the cold front will stretch from near Mobile Bay to
the western Bay of Campeche and move southeast of the region by
Mon night. Strong north winds and building seas will follow the
front, with gales developing Mon in the extreme SW Gulf. Winds
diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the
front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for
fresh east to southeast winds to set up across the area. Another
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and reach from near
Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by late
Thu. Fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow in
behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough located in the eastern Caribbean extends from the
Lesser Antilles near 18N62W to northern Venezuela near 11N64W.
Scattered showers are noted near the trough form 11N to 15N
between 59W to 69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 13N between 77W to
84W. Moderate to fresh trades are north of Colombia with gentle
to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft with
upwards of 9 ft north of Colombia.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
through the mid-week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near
the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will reach the
northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night,
and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally
strong northwest winds and building seas Tue. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low is centered near 31N80W. A stationary front
extends southwest of the low to the Florida coast near 29N81W. A
warm front extends southeast of the low near 29N76W, and a cold
front extends from 29N76W to 30N62W. Showers are near the
boundaries but no significant convection is associated with this
system at this time. A trough extends in the central Atlantic
from 31N51W to 22N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and east of the trough, N of 22N between 42W to 50W.
Another trough in the central Atlantic is farther south from
20N51W to 10N54W. Showers are noted east of the trough from 10N
to 16N between 48W to 53W. A dying cold front extends across the
eastern Atlantic from 31N11W to 24N24W to 31N37W. Showers are
within 50 nm of the boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
mostly across the region with fresh to strong S winds east of
the central Atlantic trough and seas up to 12 ft. Seas range 4-8
ft.

The entire frontal boundary in the western Atlantic will lift
back north as a warm front tonight into Mon. In the wake of this
front, strong south winds will develop Mon morning as a strong
cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move
off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon, then cross the northwest
waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to
eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will gradually weaken and
stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
building seas will follow in behind the front,mainly N of 26N
and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas
shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected ahead of the
front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift
eastward through Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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