[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and large
non-tropical low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic has
become a little better organized since yesterday. This low could
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next couple of
days while it meanders just to the north of the Canary Islands.
By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of
development, this system should cause strong winds and locally
heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Monday or Tuesday. The
most recent scatterometer data provided observations of gale
force winds in association with this feature, that is stacked
with a large mid-upper level low. This low has a medium chance of
becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
a 1010 mb low pressure located over southeastern Louisiana to
near Tuxpan, Mexico. A wide band of mainly overcast low clouds is
associated with the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the low center. Mosaic Doppler radar from
the SE of U.S. shows this convective activity affecting mainly
the Gulf waters N of 28N between 84W-91W. The low will continue
to move northeastward tonight, dragging the cold front to a
position from near Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche. The
front will exit the Gulf by Mon night. Strong north winds and
building seas will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in
the SW Gulf near the Veracruz region. Seas generated from the
gale-force winds will peak 15-16 ft on Mon afternoon. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force by late Mon night. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near
12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N-08N between 13W-20W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N-08N between
28W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N-10N
between 24N-30W, and from 05N-07N between 30W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, and it is
forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico.
As a result, a Gale warning is in effect. Please, see Special
Features section for details. Currently, fresh to strong winds
area noted in the wake of the front, and ahead of the front,
in the southerly flow, N of 27N.

High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue
night through Wed night allowing for fresh east to southeast
winds to set up across the area. Another cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from near Mobile Bay to the central
Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from Apalachee
Bay to near 25N87W and to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri
night. Fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow
in behind this front, with gale force northerly winds possible
offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends along 63W/64W.
Scattered showers are near the trough axis. An area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is over the SW Caribbean covering the
waters from 10N-12.5N between 77W-82W. This convective activity
appears related to the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
through the mid-week, except for strong northeast winds pulsing
near the coast of Colombia through Mon.

A cold front will reach western Cuba and the northwestern
Caribbean Mon night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas of 8-9 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. The
front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue
evening, become stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front. High pressure in the wake of the front is forecast to
produce fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N58W, then continues
SW to near 27N65W and westward to near 28N74W. A warm front extends
from 28N74W to a weak 1015 mb low pressure located near 31N80W.
A stationary front continues southwest from the low center across
northern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
the low center. A scatterometer pass indicated fresh easterly
winds on the north side of the warm front. The entire frontal
boundary will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Mon.
In the wake of this front, strong south winds will develop Mon
morning as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest.
This front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon, then
cross the northwest waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will
gradually weaken and stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong
northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the
front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night,
with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are
expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the
front will weaken as it shifts eastward through Fri night.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N49W to 21N55W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the
trough N of 21N between the trough and 45W. A diffluent pattern
aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Another
surface trough crosses the Madeira Islands. A ridge is between
these two features.

$$
GR
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