[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas
coast this morning. This front will move SE across the Gulf of
Mexico, reaching the SW Gulf tonight.  Gale-force winds will
develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico Mon morning, then prevail through Mon night. Seas
generated from the gale- force winds will peak near 15 ft Mon
afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-11N between 10W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information on the Gale
Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay at 27N82W to 27N87W, then
becomes stationary to a 1012 mb low near Corpus Christi, Texas at
27N96W. A cold front then extends SW from this low to NE Mexico
near 23N99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
located north and west of these frontal boundaries.

Fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Light
to gentle winds are over the far eastern Gulf, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf, and
2-3 ft elsewhere.

As the low moves NE into Louisiana later today, the front will
accelerate eastward behind it into the western Gulf. By tonight,
the cold front will stretch from near Mobile Bay to the western
Bay of Campeche. The cold front will move SE of the region by Mon
night. Strong N winds and building seas will follow the front,
with gales developing Mon in the extreme SW Gulf. Winds diminish
and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will
shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh E to
SE wind to set up across the area. Another cold front will move
into the NW Gulf late Wed and reach from near Mobile Bay to the
central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by late Thu. Fresh to
strong N wind and building seas will follow in behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection remains over the SW Caribbean S of
11N. Fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the central
Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of
the basin through the mid-week, except for strong NE winds
pulsing near the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will
reach the NW Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night, and
dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally
strong NW winds and building seas Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front stretches from near Bermuda
to the central Florida coast. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
N of the front. S of the front W of 65W, light to gentle winds,
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. N of the front, moderate ENE winds are
ongoing.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N54W to
21N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of
22N between 44W- 54W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 26N,
east of the trough to near 44W. Seas over this area are in the
8-11 ft range. Gentle to moderate W winds and seas of 5-6 ft
prevail west of the trough to near 65W.

Farther east, a cold front is over the Canary Islands from
31N11W to 26N20W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the front. Over the
trade wind zone south of 20N, moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail with seas in the 6-9 ft range.

A weak cold front along 29N will stall this morning then move N
as a warm front tonight. In the wake of this front, strong S winds
will develop Mon morning, as another cold front approaches from
the NW. This front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, then cross
the NW waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas
to eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will gradually weaken and
stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas
will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W.
Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to NE of
the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will
shift E through Thu night.

$$

KONARIK
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