[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated convection is
noted near the wave axis in northern Suriname.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 71W from
19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted from 14N to 19N between 69W to 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 83W from 22N
southward to Costa Rica, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 20N between 81W to 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off of coastal Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 03N37W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 01N to 07N
between 10W and 24W, then from 25W to 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface riding from a high over the southeastern U.S. extends
across most of the basin. A trough is noted in the southwestern
Bay of Campeche from 24N97W to 18N95W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 80 nm of the trough. Otherwise,
no significant convection is noted across the rest of the basin.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in
the southeast Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across the rest
of the Gulf. Seas range 5-9 ft with upwards of 12 ft in the
southern Bay of Campeche.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with a
stationary front near the Yucatan Channel are expected through
Sat morning across the southern Gulf and Straits of Florida.
Winds and seas will diminish across the basin this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the two
tropical waves moving across the basin and the convection
associated with them.

Showers are noted in eastern Hispaniola driven by a pre-frontal
trough in the Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is in the
Gulf of Honduras from 17N to 20N between 86W to 88W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong ENE winds in the NW
Caribbean, especially near the Yucatan Passage. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted across the eastern and central Caribbean,
particularly moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds are observed in the SW Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft across the eastern
and central Caribbean and 8-12 ft in the NW Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
winds and large seas in the northwest Caribbean. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish through Sat as the high pressure
weakens. Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters
east of the Leeward Islands through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front lingers across the western and central
Atlantic from 31N51W to 26N61W to 21N76W. A pre-frontal trough
is noted from 23N64W to 19N68W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 21N to 31N between 53W to 75W. Fresh to strong NE
winds are on the west side of the front, N of 22N between 55W and
76W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted on the eastern
side of the front. A trough is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic
from 31N28W to 25N23W with no significant convection. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds are noted across the rest of the basin. Seas range
8-11 ft in the central Atlantic, 6-8 ft in the western Atlantic
off the coast of Florida and 10-14 ft in the western Atlantic off
the coast of the Bahamas.

The stationary front will weaken today, and dissipate tonight.
High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE
to E winds across most of the region through tonight. A trough is
expected to form east of the Bahamas this weekend, and may become
a weak low pressure area by early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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