[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis near 58W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated convection is
noted near the wave axis in northern Guyana.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis near 72W from
19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 14N to 17N between 69W and 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis near 85W from 22N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 80W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 08N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N22W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N to 10N
between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the SE United States near 34N83W. A
trough is noted in the southwestern Gulf from 24N97W to 18N95W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 80 nm of the
trough. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted across the
rest of the basin. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
southeast Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across the rest of
the Gulf. Seas are in the 6-8 ft in the SE Gulf, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

Winds and seas associated with a now-dissipated stationary front
near the Yucatan Channel will continue to diminish tonight over
the southern Gulf and Straits of Florida. A weak cold front will
move through mainly the NE Gulf late Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the two
tropical waves moving across the basin and the convection
associated with them.

fresh to strong winds prevail in the NW Caribbean, including the
the Yucatan Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are
observed in the SW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
in the 3 to 7 ft range across the eastern and central Caribbean,
and 8-12 ft in the NW Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
winds and large seas in the northwest Caribbean. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish through Sat as the high pressure weakens.
Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters east of
the Leeward Islands into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front lingers across the western and central
Atlantic from 32N47W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
west of the front. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted
east of the front and north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail south of 20N. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the open
waters west of the front, 6-8 ft east of the front N of 20N, and
8 to 10 ft south of 20N.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure north
of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across
most the region through tonight. A trough is expected to form
east of the Bahamas this weekend, and may become a weak low
pressure area by early next week. A weak cold front will move
into the NW waters Mon.

$$
AL
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