[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is from 15N49W to 00N52W,
moving westward at 10 kt. A large area of convection is east of
the wave axis, south of 10N between 44W and 52W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 14N to 20N within 270 nm west of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 81W, from 19N
southward to Panama, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate showers are from 09N to 12N, and 15N to 19N, between
80W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The ITCZ extends from 08N14W near Africa to 01N46W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 11W and 32W, and from 00N to 11N between 33W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front passes from the coast of Cuba
near 22N84W, through the Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers are along the frontal
boundary. A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf from
Georgia to central Texas.

Scatterometer data shows strong E to NE winds in the SE Gulf of
Mexico including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.
Fresh easterly winds are depicted in the eastern Gulf E of 90W.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with a stationary
front near the Yucatan Channel are expected through Sat morning
across the southern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Winds and seas
will diminish across the basin this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea, as noted above in
the Tropical Waves section. All precipitationin the Caribbean
Sea is indirectly or directly related to these two tropical
waves. The eastward extension of the monsoon trough in the East
Pacific is across Panama near 08N81W into Colombia near 11N73W.

Scatterometer data shows strong E to NE winds across most of the
NW Caribbean Sea, and fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
winds and large seas in the northwest Caribbean. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish through Sat as the high pressure
weakens. Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters
east of the Leeward Islands into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the north-central Atlantic becomes stationary
near 32N48W, and the stationary from continues from 32N48W to
25N65W to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate showers
with isolated clusters of stronger convection covers a large
area in association with the frontal boundary, from 20N to 28N
between 56W and 70W, and from 28N to 32N between 48W and 63W.

Scatterometer data shows strong NE winds across a large swath of
ocean area within 300 nm north of the stationary front, and
fresh to strong winds elsewhere NW of the frontal boundary to
the coast of Florida.

The stationary front will weaken today, and dissipate by
Saturday. High pressure north of the front will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds across most the region through tonight. A
trough is expected to form east of the Bahamas this weekend, and
may become a weak low pressure area by early next week.

$$
Mundell
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