[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140946
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 32.0N 20.8W at 14/0900 UTC
or 470 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Theta has weakened with limited
convection remaining early this morning. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the NE quadrant of
Theta with scattered showers in the remaining quadrants. Weakening
is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is expected
to become a remnant low by later today.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 13.5N 74.8W at 14/0900 UTC
or 300 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Steady to rapid strengthening
is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major
hurricane when it approaches Central America. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 70W-
76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 14N-16N between 70W-76W and from 09N-11N between 76W-83W.
This deep convection extends over far NW Venezuela and coastal
sections of northern Colombia producing very heavy rainfall with
flash flooding possible. The heavy rainfall threat will shift to
Central America later in the forecast as Iota moves closer and
eventually inland. Refer to statements issued by your local
meteorological agency for more details. Peak seas are currently
around 13 ft and are forecast to build significantly as Iota
strengthens. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 59W/60W from 20N southward to across
Guayana, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N-13N between 53W-59W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from
04N-13N between 60W-69W including over inland locations of
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 09N19W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N19W to 07N26W to
08N33W, then resumes from 07N41W to 07N57W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-04N between 13W-
22W, from 06N-08N between 19W-31W, and from 02N-07N between 27W-
39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N-11N between 35W-40W, from 07N-10N between 40W-45W, and
from 06N-08N between 45W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is noted N of the basin over the southeast United
States with a broad ridge axis extending across the lower
Mississippi Valley into east-central Texas. Overnight
scatterometer data showed mainly moderate NE-E flow across the
eastern half of the basin, with moderate E-SE flow over the
western half of the basin. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft across the
basin.

High pres will remain N of the area through Sun. A cold front
will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf
by Mon afternoon, then move SE of the basin Tue night. Fresh to
strong NE winds are likely behind the front across the SE half of
the basin Tue night through Wed night as the pressure gradient
tightens due to building high pressure N of the area, and tropical
cyclone Iota which is forecast to remain south of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Iota along with associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding
threats.

Outside of Iota, overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean with seas of 4-7
ft, and gentle to moderate winds W of 80W with seas of 2-4 ft.

Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the
SW Caribbean through the weekend. Marine conditions will
gradually improve in the wake of Iota from east to west through
early next week. A cold front may move into the NW Caribbean by
mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is noted from near 32N70W to near Key Largo,
Florida. Associated winds of fresh to strong have become confined
to the waters N of 32N per overnight scatterometer data. Data also
showed moderate to fresh E-SE flow south of 25N, with moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow elsewhere SE of the front and west of 60W
under a ridge of high pressure which extends from high pressure
near 34N52W. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted behind the
front offshore of Florida. East of 60W, a mid-to-upper level
disturbance near 22N53W is supporting active scattered moderate
convection within 240-360 nm of that location. Overnight
scatterometer data also showed winds locally to strong levels in
the areas of deepest convection, much of which was rain-flagged. A
surface trough is noted along 37W and south of 12N with associated
convection described above.

The weak cold front/frontal trough from near 31N72W to near the
Florida Keys will weaken through today, then stalling and
gradually dissipating through Sun. A cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast by early Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue
night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens.

$$
Lewitsky
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