[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm IOTA, at 14/0300 UTC, is near 13.6N
74.2W, in the Caribbean Sea. This position is also about 540 nm
to the E of NE Nicaragua. ETA is moving toward the SSW, 200
degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. IOTA is forecast to strengthen. The risk of
dangerous winds, storm surge, and rainfall impacts in Central
America will begin on Monday. Anybody who has interests in
Nicaragua and in Honduras should monitor the progress of IOTA.
It is possible that a HURRICANE WATCH may be required for some
parts of that area on Saturday. Anybody who has interests in San
Andres and in Providencia should monitor the progress of IOTA
also. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 210 nm of the
center in the S semicircle between 71W and 76W. Scattered to
numerous strong is within 60 nm on either side of the line, in
Venezuela, from 10N66W to 07N62W; and within 90 nm of the coast
of Venezuela between 65W and 69W; and in Colombia from 07N to
09N between 74W and 76W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere, in the Caribbean Sea. It is possible that heavy
rainfall from IOTA may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding, in parts of Haiti, Jamaica, and Central
America, through Wednesday. It is possible that flooding and
landslides from heavy rainfall may be significant in Central
America, given that recovery efforts are underway after
Hurricane ETA. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.
Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather
office, also.

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 14/0300 UTC, is near
31.9N 21.6W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the
E, or 90 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45
knots with gusts to 55 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 29N to 35N from 25W
eastward. Please, read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 30N between 49W and 64W. The ITCZ is
along 6N/07N between 41W and 57W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters that are
from 11N southward from 50W westward, and from 17N to 26N
between 49W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to
06N27W to 08N33W. A surface trough is along 10N36W 05N38W
03N40W. The rest of the ITCZ is along 6N/07N between 41W and
57W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to
11N between 35W and 39W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 08N to 10N between 41W and 44w. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is flat and
weak, at the moment. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will remain N of the area through Sunday. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The
cold front will reach the central Gulf of Mexico by Monday
afternoon, and then the front will move SE of the basin on
Tuesday night. Fresh to strong NE winds are likely behind the
front, across the SE half of the basin, on Tuesday night or
Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm IOTA is in the Caribbean Sea, about 540 nm to the
E of NE Nicaragua. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section,
for more information.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 78W westward, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from
77W westward.

Tropical Storm Iota near 13.6N 74.2W 1006 mb at 10 PM EST moving
SSW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Iota
will move to 13.5N 74.9W Sat morning, 13.7N 76.0W Sat evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 14.0N 77.6W Sun morning, 14.3N
79.5W Sun evening, 14.5N 81.2W Mon morning, and 14.7N 82.7W Mon
evening. Iota will weaken to a tropical storm while moving
inland near 14.8N 85.4W late Tue, then to a post-tropical
remnant low near 14.3N 88.5W late Wed. Very active weather will
persist across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean Sea through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm THETA is in the NE part of the Atlantic Ocean,
near 31.9N 21.6W. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for
more information.

A cold front passes through 32N72W to 27N79W. Broad surface low
pressure continues from the SW part of the cold front, into the
Straits of Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120
nm to the SE of the cold front and surface low pressure.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
between Tropical Storm THETA and the cold front. A 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 34N49W.

A frontal trough, from near 31N75W to the Straits of Florida,
will weaken, as a developing weak cold front settles to the S of
31N through Saturday, stalling and gradually dissipating through
Sunday.
Another cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast by early
Monday. The second cold front will reach from near Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas early on Tuesday, and then from 28N65W to
the SE Bahamas early on Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will
develop behind the front, from Tuesday night through Wednesday
night, as the surface pressure gradient tightens.

$$
mt
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