[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 12.7N 76.2W at 14/1500 UTC
or 320 nm S of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Steady to rapid strengthening
is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central
America late Monday. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 09N-16N between 68W-82W, although
convection is limited in the NW quadrant north of 13N and west of
76.5W. This deep convection extends over coastal sections of
northern Colombia and Panama, producing very heavy rainfall with
flash flooding possible. The heavy rainfall threat will shift to
northern Nicaragua and Honduras Monday through mid-week, also
affecting eastern Guatemala and southern Belize by mid-week, as
Iota moves inland. These rains will likely lead to significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, especially over northern
Nicaragua, Honduras, eastern Guatemala and southern Belize.
Refer to statements issued by your local meteorological agency
for more details. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft and are
forecast to build significantly as Iota strengthens. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.8N 20.2W at 14/1500 UTC
or 500 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Theta is
expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has been added to the analysis along 40W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and
east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is along 59W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm either
side of the wave axis from 06N-13N, including near and over
Trinidad. Similar convection is seen from 13N-16N within 300
nm E of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N17W to 07N21W to
07N38W, then resumes from 06N42W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-08N between 18W-26W, south of the
ITCZ from 03N-07N between 31W-38W, and north of the ITCZ from
07N-09.5N between 26W-38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 05N-10N between 44W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered ridging and relatively dry air cover the Gulf of
Mexico. Recent ASCAT data shows mainly moderate E winds across
the eastern half of the basin, with gentle to moderate E-SE flow
over the western half of the basin. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft across
the basin.

A high pressure ridge extending from the eastern U.S. to the
central Gulf will shift E and weaken across the Gulf through Sun.
A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the
central Gulf by Mon afternoon, then move SE of the basin Tue
night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front
across the SE half of the basin Tue night through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection occurring south of 16N and west of 68W over the SW
portion of the Caribbean is due to Tropical Storm Iota, which
was centered about 130 nm NW of Barranquilla Colombia as of
14/1500 UTC this morning. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for details on Tropical Storm Iota along with the
associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats. Convection
occurring in the SE Caribbean near Trinidad and the southern
Windward Islands is due to an approaching tropical wave along
59W. See the Tropical Waves section above for details.

A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate trades between 60W-65W and
fresh trades between 65W-70W. Strong winds associated with the
circulation of Iota are confined to areas from 10N-18N between
70W-80W. Mainly moderate wind speeds are currently over the NW
Caribbean. Outside of Iota, seas are 4-6 ft east of 70W and
2-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin.

Tropical Storm Iota will move to near 13N77W this evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 14N80W Sunday evening, and be near
the coast of NE Nicaragua or E Honduras in the vicinity of 14.5N
83W Mon evening as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Very active
weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean
through the weekend. After landfall, Iota will move westward
across Honduras, but squalls and winds in its northern semicircle
will likely impact the southern Gulf of Honduras through
Wednesday. A cold front may move into the NW Caribbean by
mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N66W to 28N74W and is stationary from
28N74W to just E of South Florida near 26N79.5W. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are NW of the front. Fresh SW winds are SE
of the front to the north of 30N. Gentle winds are SE of the
front south of 30N. Isolated showers are possible near the front.
A surface ridge axis with gentle winds extends from a 1025 mb
high near 32N43W to 29N60W to 27N70W. A mid to upper-level low is
centered near 22N57W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are seen from 18N-27N between 40W-60W. Fresh to locally
strong E winds are from 19N-26N between 41W-56W. Strong winds
associated with T.S. Theta are confined to areas north of 28N
between 16W-26N. See the Special Features section above for more
details on Theta.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending from
28N74W to near Miami Florida will weaken today. The cold front
from 32N68W to 28N74W will drift SE, then stall tonight and
gradually dissipate through Sun. A cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast by early Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front
Tue night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens.

$$
Hagen
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