[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 122047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with
intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center
of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last
night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains
a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its
appearance.

Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone
continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge.
A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the
mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level
northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants
are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in
the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed
little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model
consensus tracks.

The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next
day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These
counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its
intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear
is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into
its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the
system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
one and is close to the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 31.7N  27.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 31.8N  25.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 31.8N  23.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 31.5N  21.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 31.2N  20.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 31.1N  19.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 31.4N  19.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1800Z 34.0N  19.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1800Z 38.4N  15.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net