[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a
frontal boundary just to its west.  Deep convection is mostly
confined to the northern side of the system and in patches
associated with its trailing trough.  Since buoy 41004 off the
South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt,
the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory.

The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition
overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up
into a trough soon.  Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the
nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an
extratropical cyclone.  The non-tropical low is then forecast to
dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic.  Eta, or its
remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on
Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic
influences.

Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt.  An even faster motion to the
northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in
the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough.  This should take Eta, or
its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast.

Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread
northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina
and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  See products
from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National
Weather Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 32.3N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 33.6N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 36.1N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/1200Z 39.3N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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