[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 122043
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center
of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther
north than previously anticipated.  The satellite presentation of
the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band
located well east of the center.  The circulation has also become
more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the
center over the Atlantic waters.  Based on the continued
degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 35 kt.  Little change in strength is anticipated
through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The
UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of
the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what
is indicated in the official foreast.  A plausible alternative
scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to
become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary
on Friday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt.  The cyclone should
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead
of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday.
Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were
required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered dynamical models.

Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal
boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the
Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 31.6N  80.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 33.2N  77.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 35.6N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/0600Z 38.7N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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