[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 28.6N
83.3W, in the Gulf of Mexico. This position is also about 56
nm/105 km to the NNW of St. Petersburg in Florida; and about 56
nm/105 km to the NW of Tampa in Florida. ETA is moving toward
the N, or 010 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from Cuba
northward between 74W and 84W.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 12/0300 UTC, is near
31.1N 31.4W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the
ENE, or 60 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm of the center in the
N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots.
A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near
15.5N. Precipitation: numerous strong, in Colombia and Venezuela
and in the coastal waters, from 09N to 14N between 67W and 73W;
and from 180 nm to 250 nm to the E of the 1009 mb low pressure
center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 210 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 75W eastward.
Satellite imagery indicates that the 1009 mb low pressure center
gradually is becoming better organized. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form by the weekend. The low pressure
center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the central and
western sections of the Caribbean Sea. This system is expected
to bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of Hispaniola, during the
next day or so. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the
webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The only tropical wave that is part of the analysis for 12
November/0000 UTC, is the Caribbean Sea tropical wave that is
along 68W/69W. A low pressure center is along the tropical wave,
near 15.5N.
This is the feature that has a medium chance of developing into
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details. Please, refer to the
webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from
08N16W, to 06N22W, to 08N26W, 04N36W, to 06N52W in the coastal
waters of French Guiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong in individual clusters, is within 155 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 18W and 32W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated to locally strong is elsewhere from the
10N southward from 47W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 28.6N
83.3W, in the Gulf of Mexico. This position is also about 56
nm/105 km to the NNW of St. Petersburg in Florida; and about 56
nm/105 km to the NW of Tampa in Florida. ETA is moving toward
the N, or 010 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from Cuba
northward between 74W and 84W.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Eta near 28.3N 83.4W 993 mb at 10 PM EST moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will
move inland to 29.7N 82.4W Thu morning. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico, tonight, before stalling across the
central Gulf of Mexico, through late Friday. The front is
forecast to move northward, and to dissipate through Saturday.
Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico
late on Sunday. The second cold front will reach the central
Gulf of Mexico by late Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots.
A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near
15.5N. Precipitation: numerous strong, in Colombia and Venezuela
and in the coastal waters, from 09N to 14N between 67W and 73W;
and from 180 nm to 250 nm to the E of the 1009 mb low pressure
center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 210 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 75W eastward.
Satellite imagery indicates that the 1009 mb low pressure center
gradually is becoming better organized. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form by the weekend. The low pressure
center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the central and
western sections of the Caribbean Sea. This system is expected
to bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of Hispaniola, during the
next day or so. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the
webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W 12N80W, through Nicaragua,
Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, and beyond 14N92W, in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward.

An upper level trough extends from south Florida, to NW Cuba, to
the central coast of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 17N northward from 81W westward.

Low pressure, along a tropical wave that is moving across the
central Caribbean Sea, has a high possibility of tropical
cyclone development, late this week or this weekend, when the
wave reaches
the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 12/0300 UTC, is near
31.1N 31.4W. THETA is moving toward the ENE, or 60 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65
knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle.
Please, read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 33N40W to
24N55W, to 18N61W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 300 nm
to the south upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving
around the periphery of the upper level trough, from the NE
Caribbean Sea to 27N30W in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered
moderate to strong, in individual clusters, is from 06N to 16N
between 47W and 57W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
on either side of Tropical Storm THETA.

Tropical Storm Eta near 28.3N 83.4W 993 mb at 10 PM EST moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will
move across north Florida and reach the Atlantic coast near
31.8N 79.8W Thu evening. Eta will weaken to a tropical
depression off South Carolina by Fri night, then continue to
weaken as it moves northward along a frontal boundary off the
coast, before dissipating on Sat evening. Elsewhere: fresh to
strong SE winds and associated seas will decrease through
Friday, as Eta
moves northward. A trough will move to the north of the Leeward
Islands and the Virgin Islands, from Saturday through Monday.

$$
mt
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