[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 12/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 27.9N 83.4W
or 40 nm W of St. Petersburg, Florida moving N at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast
of west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over
the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is
expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday or early Friday. Slow weakening is expected as Eta
approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid
weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 30.5N 31.9W at 11/2100 UTC
or 510 nm SSW of the Azores moving ENE at 11 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn
to the east along with a slowing of the forward speed. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Currently, Eta is forecast to
cross W of the Madeira Islands by Sun. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean along 72W is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery shows clusters of moderate to isolated strong
convection in the wake of the wave axis, mainly N of 12N between
63W-72W. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more
conducive environmental conditions over the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or
this weekend when the disturbance reaches the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over
the next day or so. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states
that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please, refer
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
and to products issued by your local weather office, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone, then continues westward to near 08N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N16N to 04N30W to 05N38W to 06N50W to the coast of
Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 30W, and from 08N to
14N between 47W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, see Special Feature section for details on Tropical
Storm Eta. The Mosaic Doppler Radar from the SE U.S. shows bands
of heavy rain associated with the circulation of Eta affecting
the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida
through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be
possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across
previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor
river flooding are expected across portions of west and north
Florida through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected
this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations
of fresh to strong winds related to the circulation of Eta all
the way from western Cuba to about 29N over the eastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds dominate the western Gulf.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, before stalling
across the central Gulf through late Fri, then lifting north and
dissipating through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front will
move into the northern Gulf late Sun, and reach the central Gulf
by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave, with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation, is moving across the central Caribbean. Please, see
Tropical Waves section for more details.

Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh southerly winds
over the NW Caribbean and western Cuba along with a band of showers
and thunderstorms. During the last 24 hours, ending this morning
at 7 am EST, Paso Real de San Diego in the province of Pinar del
Rio reported the greatest rainfall amount of 8 inches (203 mm).
Rainfall totals of 3-4 inches were also reported in parts of
Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A wind gust to 48 kt (90 km/h) was
reported at Casa Blanca, in Havana. Weather conditions will
continue to improve over the NW Caribbean and western Cuba as
tropical cyclone Eta moves farther N across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on tropical cyclone Theta, see the Special Features
section above. With Theta, a new record has been established.
The 2020 Hurricane Season is now the busiest on record with
twenty-nine named storms, breaking the old recod of 28 set back
in 2005.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic and Eta over the E Gulf of Mexico continues to
support an area of fresh to strong E-SE winds over the SW N
Atlantic waters, particularly E of Florida to about 75W, and N of
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to near 23N. Seas of
9-11 ft are associated with these winds. These conditions will
persist tonight into Thu before gradually subsiding through late
Thu night. Eta is expected to accelerate northeastward across
northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over
the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early
afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge
with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States.

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 34N60W dominates the
Atlantic forecast region roughly between 40W-80W. The southern
semicircle of Theta covers the waters N of 26N between 28W-36W.
A weak ridge reaches the Madeira and the Canary Islands.

$$
GR
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