[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 29.1N 83.0W at 12/0900 UTC
or 0 nm E of Cedar Key Florida moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted across northern Florida and into the SW N Atlc
waters off the coast of northern Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Eta will move
across northern Florida today, then move into the SW N Atlc waters
this afternoon before lifting north of 31N tonight. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 30.2W at 12/0900 UTC
or 410 nm SSW of the Azores moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 240 nm NW semicircle. Scattered
moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm NW and 120
nm SE semicircles of Eta. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Low pressure has developed in the central Caribbean in association
to a tropical wave. Convection associated to this low is gradually
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable
for further development, and there is a high chance for a
tropical depression to form during the next 2 to 3 days as the
system moves slowly westward over the central and western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the
next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products
issued by your local weather office. Please see the latest
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, moving westward at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers much
of the Caribbean waters east of 74W. Low pressure has developed in
association to this wave, and there is a high probability for
this low to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two
days. Please see above for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 07.5N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 07.5N17W to 05N31W to 04N45W to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of
35W to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Eta near 29.1N 83.0W 995 mb at 4 AM EST moving NE
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Please see
above for more on Eta. Outside of Eta, light to gentle winds
prevail, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Eta will move across
northern Florida and into the SW N Atlc today. Marine conditions
caused by Eta will start to improve today. A stationary front
across the north central Gulf will lift north and dissipate
through Sat. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late
Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more on a tropical wave and low pressure
moving across the area with a high chance of tropical
cyclogenesis. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas in the 5-7 ft
range prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds,
and seas in the 2-4 ft range prevail over the central and western
Caribbean.

Low pressure along a tropical wave moving across the central
Caribbean has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development
late this week or this weekend while moving over the central or
western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Theta.

High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 33N56W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and Tropical Storm Eta
over the NE Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the waters west of 65W, with seas peaking near 12 ft.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A mid to upper trough
is supporting an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 07N to 17N between 45W and 57W.

Eta will move across northern Florida this morning, and into the
SW N Atlc this afternoon, bringing a brief period of tropical
storm winds off the coast of northern Florida. Eta will continue
to weaken and move further north of the area tonight. This will
loosen the tight pressure gradient over the waters W of 65W that
has prevailed since last weekend, and bring a gradual decrease in
winds and seas today into Friday.

$$
AL
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