[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered inland over north-central
Nicaragua near 13.9N 85.2W at 04/1500 UTC, or about 115 nm NNE of
Managua, Nicaragua, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
within 480 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 360 nm
NW quadrant, including much of northern Honduras, Belize and
eastern Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm
of the center in the S semicircle, including portions of
Nicaragua, the remainder of Honduras, El Salvador, eastern Costa
Rica and western Panama. A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north and
then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over
northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move
across central Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is
forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday
night and Friday. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves
over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a
tropical depression tonight. Rainfall will lead to catastrophic,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash
flooding and river flooding are possible across Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador,
southeastern Mexico, Jamaica, southern Haiti, and the Cayman
Islands. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 38W from 16N equatorward, moving W
at 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis
from 10N-15N.

A tropical wave axis is near 54W from 01N-14N, moving W at 5-10
kt. An upper-level trough axis extends from 24N42W to 07N58W,
enhancing scattered moderate convection from 06N-11N between
49W-58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the west coast of Africa near
13N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ is from 09N21W to 04N36W, then
continues west of a tropical wave along 04/05N between 40W-52W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N-11N between 11W-17W, from 05N-09N between 20W-27W, and from
00N-05N between 48.5W-51.5W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure over
Kentucky southwestward to east Texas to a 1024 mb high over
Mexico near 22.5N100.5W. The pressure gradient between Tropical
Storm Eta and the high pressure is currently causing near gale
force NE winds across the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE
winds are elsewhere over the SE Gulf of Mexico, south and east of
a line from Tampa Bay to 26N90W to 20N96.5W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail north and west of that line. Little to no
significant shower activity is seen across the basin.

Winds over the S central and SE Gulf will gradually diminish
beginning on Thu evening. However, winds will remain moderate to
fresh over the eastern Gulf through Sun. Over the weekend,
Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to approach Florida from the
south. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida
Straits Sat night and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the western Caribbean west of 73W is due to
Tropical Storm Eta and its interaction with an old lingering
frontal zone over Cuba. Little to no significant shower activity
is noted east of 72W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades
across the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 77W. Mostly
strong wind speeds prevail west of 77W. Near gale E winds are
seen north of eastern Honduras from 16N-18N between 81.5W-86W
associated with the circulation of Tropical Storm Eta. Another
area of near gale NE winds is south of western of Cuba and near
the Yucatan Channel from 20N-23N between 82W-86W. For more
details on Tropical Storm Eta, see the Special Features section
above.

Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to weaken to a remnant low over
Central America on Thu, but reemerge into the NW Caribbean east
of Belize early Friday, then strengthen to a tropical storm
Friday evening near 18N86W. Eta is then forecast to cross Cuba
Sunday morning and move into the Florida Straits later Sunday.
Outside of Eta, scattered showers and tstorms will continue to
cover portions of the W Caribbean through the end of the week,
while strong to near gale NE winds remain over the NW Caribbean
through early Thu. In the central and E Caribbean, the trades
will diminish by late Thu and remain weaker than usual for the
next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N54W to 24N68W to Crooked
Island Bahamas near 23N74W to Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Near gale
force NE winds are currently occurring north of the front west of
73W, and extend from 23N-26N between 73W-83W, including the
Florida Straits through the central and northwest Bahamas. Fresh
to strong NE winds are elsewhere north the front from 20N-31N
between 54W-83W. Gentle to moderate winds are south and east of
the front from 21N-31N between 45W-68W.

Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from 31N18W to
29N30W to 24N42W to 07N58W. This upper trough is enhancing
scattered showers from 13N-30N between 19W-37W. The latest ASCAT
pass shows strong NE winds north of 27N between 15W-35W. Fresh
winds prevail elsewhere north of 17N and east of 43W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front from the
central Bahamas to Cuba will remain over the region today and
gradually dissipate tonight and Thu. Strong to near gale force NE
to E winds north of the front will continue through Thu night,
then become mainly fresh E winds Fri, but increase to fresh to
strong Sat and Sun as Tropical Storm Eta approaches Florida from
the south. Rough seas will continue over the majority of the area
through Thu, then begin to slowly subside through late Fri. Seas
will build again over the waters north and northeast of the
Bahamas this weekend.

$$

Hagen
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