[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 13.8N 84.7W at 04/0900 UTC
or 80 nm W of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua moving W at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong
convection is east of the center over the Caribbean from 13N-20N
between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 13N-20N between 75W-89W. A faster
west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday morning. A
turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday
night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is
expected to move over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and
then move across the central portions of Honduras through
Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Continued weakening will
occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days,
and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Rainfall
will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain
of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be
possible across Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Panama,
Costa, El Salvador, southeastern Mexico, El Salvador, Jamaica,
southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 36W from 16N equatorward, moving W
at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is located to the southeast of a rather
potent upper-level trough. This pattern is favorable for the
enhancement of convection near the wave. Satellite imagery shows a
large area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection E of
the axis from 05N-11N between 26W-34W.

A tropical wave axis is near 54W from 01N-12N, moving W at 10 kt.
Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the west coast of Africa near
12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ is from 10N20W to 07N34W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to 02N51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure over coastal
North Carolina westward southward to southern Mexico. The
pressure gradient between Hurricane Eta and the high pressure is
currently causing near gale force NE winds across the southeast
Gulf of Mexico. This includes the Florida Straits and the Yucatan
Channel, where an ASCAT pass suggested that NE winds were in the
28 to 33 kt range. Winds are only moderate over the northwest Gulf
of Mexico. Strong N winds are in the Bay of Campeche south of
20N. Little to no significant precipitation is noted, although
scattered stratus clouds are seen in the southern half of the
Gulf.

A strong high pressure in the SE United States continues to build
across the area and in its wake fresh to strong NE winds prevail
over the S central and SE Gulf. These winds will gradually
diminish beginning on Thu evening. Winds will remain moderate to
fresh over the eastern Gulf waters through Sun. On the weekend
Tropical Storm Eta may be approaching Florida from the south.
Tropical storm conditions may be possible in the Florida Straits
Sat night and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Eta.

Convection in the western Caribbean west of 73W is due to
Hurricane Eta and its interaction with an old lingering frontal
zone. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are
over E Cuba and Hispaniola. An ASCAT pass showed moderate to
fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, east of
75W.

Outside of Eta, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to cover portions of the W Caribbean through the end of the week,
while strong to near gale NE winds remain over the NW Caribbean
through early Thu. In the central and E Caribbean, the trades will
diminish by late Thu and remain weaker than usual for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N54W through the central
Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Near gale force
winds are north of the front west of 74W, and extend from the
Florida Straits through the central and northwest Bahamas to near
25N74W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere behind the front,
except for moderate anticyclonic winds seen north of 29N and west
of 70W.

Farther east, a potent upper-level trough stretches across the
central Atlantic, generally from 15N-30N between 35W-50W. This
upper trough is enhancing scattered convection aloft that extends
N from the tropical wave along 35W to 30N, between 28W-35W.

A stationary front across the central Bahamas to central Cuba
will remain over the region Wed before gradually dissipating Wed
night. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds behind the front
will continue through Thu night, then become mainly fresh E winds
Fri and increase to fresh to strong Sat and Sun as Tropical Storm
Eta approaches Florida from the south. Rough seas will continue
over the majority of the area through Thu, then begin to slowly
subside through late Fri. Seas build again over the waters north
and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sun.

$$
Formosa/Landsea
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